AC Milan — Venezia FC: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.6% |
| 12 | 79.6% | |
| X2 | 34.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.3% / 18.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.9% / 41.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.5% / 63.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.08.2026
AC Milan
6th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Torino 2:1
- 24.05.2026 home Cagliari 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away Genoa 2:1
- 10.05.2026 home Atalanta 2:3
- 03.05.2026 away Sassuolo 0:2
Venezia FC
18th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Lecce 0:2
- 08.05.2026 home Palermo 2:0
- 01.05.2026 away Spezia 2:2
- 25.04.2026 home Empoli 2:0
- 18.04.2026 away Bari 3:0
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 27.04.2025 Venezia FC 0:2 AC Milan
- 14.09.2024 AC Milan 4:0 Venezia FC
- 09.01.2022 Venezia FC 0:3 AC Milan
- 22.09.2021 AC Milan 2:0 Venezia FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AC Milan enter this Serie A meeting with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over Venezia FC. The available assessment points toward the home side being stronger overall, with moderate confidence rather than an entirely one-sided expectation. That suggests AC Milan should be able to impose more control, particularly in a match where the home setting supports their position, while Venezia FC will need to remain disciplined and make the most of their opportunities.
The scoring outlook is medium, with plausible scorelines including 2-0, 2-1 and 1-0. These possibilities indicate that AC Milan have the stronger path to victory, but the margin may remain limited. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so Venezia FC cannot be discounted as an attacking threat even though the balance favours AC Milan. Overall, the match leans toward a home win, with the main uncertainty centred on the final margin and Venezia FC's ability to contribute on the scoresheet.
What matters before kick-off
Matchday 1 Serie A results
AC Milan began their Serie A campaign under coach Ruben Amorim with a 2-1 victory over Torino. Meanwhile, Venezia suffered a 2-0 defeat against Lecce in their opening match.
Head-to-head record
AC Milan have won all four of their Serie A matches against Venezia since 2021 without conceding a single goal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.