Match intelligence

Sassuolo Calcio — Torino FC: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026

League: Serie A (Italy) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Sassuolo Calcio2
:
1Torino FC
Locked signal 1X Probability 71.5% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 42.6% Home win Sassuolo Calcio
X 28.9% Draw
W2 28.5% Away win Torino FC
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X71.5%
Both teams to score
Yes55.1%
Totals 2.5
Under50.4%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X71.5%
1271.1%
X257.4%
Both teams to scoreYes/No55.1% / 44.9%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 91.4% / 8.6%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 76.0% / 24.0%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 49.6% / 50.4%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 27.7% / 72.3%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 13.1% / 86.9%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 5.4% / 94.6%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Sassuolo Calcio × Torino FC
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 8.6%
0:1 6.6%
0:2 4.8%
0:3 1.9%
0:4 0.6%
0:5 0.1%
1
1:0 8.8%
1:1 13.8%
1:2 7.2%
1:3 2.8%
1:4 0.8%
1:5 0.2%
2
2:0 7.7%
2:1 9.1%
2:2 5.3%
2:3 2.1%
2:4 0.6%
2:5 0.1%
3
3:0 3.8%
3:1 4.5%
3:2 2.6%
3:3 1.0%
3:4 0.3%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 1.4%
4:1 1.7%
4:2 1.0%
4:3 0.4%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.4%
5:1 0.5%
5:2 0.3%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.8%
2:19.1%
1:08.8%
0:08.6%
2:07.7%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026

Sassuolo Calcio

12th place · 0 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 23.08.2026 away Atalanta 1:2
  • 24.05.2026 away Parma 0:1
  • 17.05.2026 home Lecce 2:3
  • 08.05.2026 away Torino 1:2
  • 03.05.2026 home Milan 2:0

Torino FC

13th place · 0 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 23.08.2026 home Milan 1:2
  • 24.05.2026 home Juventus 2:2
  • 17.05.2026 away Cagliari 1:2
  • 08.05.2026 home Sassuolo 2:1
  • 02.05.2026 away Udinese 0:2

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Sassuolo Calcio wins1
Draws2
Torino FC wins3
Goals per match2.00
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
  • 08.05.2026 Torino FC 2:1 Sassuolo Calcio
  • 21.12.2025 Sassuolo Calcio 0:1 Torino FC
  • 10.02.2024 Sassuolo Calcio 1:1 Torino FC
  • 06.11.2023 Torino FC 2:1 Sassuolo Calcio
  • 03.04.2023 Sassuolo Calcio 1:1 Torino FC
  • 17.09.2022 Torino FC 0:1 Sassuolo Calcio

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Sassuolo Calcio have a slight edge over Torino FC in this Serie A meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a closely contested match rather than a one-sided contest. The overall outlook points toward a medium-scoring game, with the home side offering the stronger result signal while a draw remains a realistic possibility.

Both teams scoring is viewed as evenly balanced, so the match could develop in several directions depending on which side makes better use of its opportunities. Sassuolo Calcio may have a little more initiative, particularly with home advantage, but Torino FC should remain competitive and capable of keeping the contest level. The most plausible scorelines indicate a narrow home win or a draw, with a low-margin result more likely than a decisive victory.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Both sides seeking first points

Both teams enter Round 2 of the 2026/27 Serie A season seeking their first points after opening-day defeats, as Sassuolo lost 2-1 to Atalanta while Torino fell 2-1 against AC Milan.

Match fact

Recent H2H record

Torino won both Serie A head-to-head encounters against Sassuolo during the 2025/26 season, securing a 1-0 away victory and a 2-1 win at home.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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