AC Monza — Udinese Calcio: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.6% |
| 12 | 69.2% | |
| X2 | 70.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.8% / 49.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.4% / 10.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.4% / 28.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 43.7% / 56.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.9% / 90.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.7% / 96.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
AC Monza and Udinese Calcio meet in a Serie A fixture that looks evenly matched, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. The available assessment points towards a moderate level of confidence, so the match should be approached as a contest with several plausible outcomes rather than one with a decisive prediction. The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a game that may produce a limited but meaningful number of chances.
Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, leaving room for either a shared contribution on the scoresheet or a match in which one side fails to convert. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:0 and 0:1, reflecting the narrow gap between the teams and the possibility of a controlled encounter. Udinese Calcio have a slight edge in the wider outcome signal, but the draw remains a prominent possibility, particularly if AC Monza can keep the game compact and avoid allowing early momentum to shift.
What matters before kick-off
AC Monza defeat to Inter Milan
AC Monza started their Serie A campaign with a 4-1 away defeat against Inter Milan at San Siro, despite Gustavo Varela scoring a first-half equalizer.
Udinese Calcio draw against Como
Udinese Calcio opened their Serie A season with a 1-1 home draw against Como 1907, with Hassane Kamara putting Udinese ahead in the first half.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.