Match intelligence

AC Monza — Udinese Calcio: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026

League: Serie A (Italy) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
AC Monza2
:
3Udinese Calcio
Locked signal X2 Probability 69.5% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 30.5% Home win AC Monza
X 30.5% Draw
W2 39.0% Away win Udinese Calcio
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X270.2%
Both teams to score
Yes50.8%
Totals 2.5
Under56.3%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X60.6%
1269.2%
X270.2%
Both teams to scoreYes/No50.8% / 49.2%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 89.4% / 10.6%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 71.4% / 28.6%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 43.7% / 56.3%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 22.6% / 77.4%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 9.9% / 90.1%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 3.7% / 96.3%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

AC Monza × Udinese Calcio
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 10.6%
0:1 9.9%
0:2 7.6%
0:3 3.3%
0:4 1.1%
0:5 0.3%
1
1:0 8.1%
1:1 14.7%
1:2 8.5%
1:3 3.7%
1:4 1.2%
1:5 0.3%
2
2:0 5.5%
2:1 7.2%
2:2 4.7%
2:3 2.1%
2:4 0.7%
2:5 0.2%
3
3:0 2.0%
3:1 2.7%
3:2 1.7%
3:3 0.8%
3:4 0.3%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 0.6%
4:1 0.7%
4:2 0.5%
4:3 0.2%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.1%
5:1 0.2%
5:2 0.1%
5:3 0.0%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.7%
0:010.6%
0:19.9%
1:28.5%
1:08.1%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026

AC Monza

18th place · 0 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 22.08.2026 away Inter 1:4
  • 08.05.2026 home Empoli 2:2
  • 01.05.2026 away Mantova 2:3
  • 24.04.2026 home Modena 1:0
  • 17.04.2026 away Sampdoria 3:0

Udinese Calcio

10th place · 1 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 22.08.2026 home Como 1:1
  • 24.05.2026 away Napoli 0:1
  • 17.05.2026 home Cremonese 0:1
  • 09.05.2026 away Cagliari 2:0
  • 02.05.2026 home Torino 2:0

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

AC Monza wins1
Draws3
Udinese Calcio wins2
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
  • 11.05.2025 Udinese Calcio 1:2 AC Monza
  • 09.12.2024 AC Monza 1:2 Udinese Calcio
  • 03.02.2024 Udinese Calcio 0:0 AC Monza
  • 29.10.2023 AC Monza 1:1 Udinese Calcio
  • 08.04.2023 Udinese Calcio 2:2 AC Monza
  • 26.08.2022 AC Monza 1:2 Udinese Calcio

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

AC Monza and Udinese Calcio meet in a Serie A fixture that looks evenly matched, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. The available assessment points towards a moderate level of confidence, so the match should be approached as a contest with several plausible outcomes rather than one with a decisive prediction. The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a game that may produce a limited but meaningful number of chances.

Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, leaving room for either a shared contribution on the scoresheet or a match in which one side fails to convert. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:0 and 0:1, reflecting the narrow gap between the teams and the possibility of a controlled encounter. Udinese Calcio have a slight edge in the wider outcome signal, but the draw remains a prominent possibility, particularly if AC Monza can keep the game compact and avoid allowing early momentum to shift.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

AC Monza defeat to Inter Milan

AC Monza started their Serie A campaign with a 4-1 away defeat against Inter Milan at San Siro, despite Gustavo Varela scoring a first-half equalizer.

Schedule

Udinese Calcio draw against Como

Udinese Calcio opened their Serie A season with a 1-1 home draw against Como 1907, with Hassane Kamara putting Udinese ahead in the first half.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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