Juventus Turin — Parma Calcio: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.3% |
| 12 | 87.0% | |
| X2 | 19.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 37.0% / 63.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.3% / 20.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.9% / 65.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.2% / 81.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Juventus Turin go into this Serie A meeting with a clear advantage over Parma Calcio. The available assessment places the hosts as clearly stronger, while the expected profile is medium-scoring rather than an open contest. Juventus Turin should therefore be able to control much of the match, particularly if they establish an early territorial edge and limit Parma Calcio’s opportunities to counter.
Parma Calcio face a demanding defensive task, as the forecast points towards a clean sheet for the hosts. The most plausible scorelines are 2–0, 1–0 and 3–0, all of which reflect Juventus Turin’s superior position without suggesting an excessively high-scoring game. Parma Calcio will need to remain compact and make efficient use of limited attacking situations, while Juventus Turin can focus on patient possession and avoiding unnecessary risks. Overall, the outlook favours a controlled home performance and a result shaped more by Juventus Turin’s authority than by sustained end-to-end action.
What matters before kick-off
Juventus team news
Juventus forward Kenan Yildiz remains sidelined with a foot injury, while midfielder Weston McKennie is also unavailable for the Parma fixture.
Opening round results
Juventus opened their Serie A campaign with a 1-0 win against Frosinone, whereas Parma suffered a 1-0 home defeat to Cagliari.
Head-to-head milestone statistics
Juventus have won 28 Serie A matches against Parma, with only Roma and Milan recording more top-flight victories against the Gialloblu.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.