Match intelligence

Juventus Turin — Parma Calcio: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026

League: Serie A (Italy) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Juventus Turin2
:
0Parma Calcio
Locked signal W1 Probability 80.2% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 80.2% Home win Juventus Turin
X 12.7% Draw
W2 7.1% Away win Parma Calcio
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X93.3%
Both teams to score
No63.0%
Totals 2.5
Over57.3%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X93.3%
1287.0%
X219.6%
Both teams to scoreYes/No37.0% / 63.0%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 95.5% / 4.5%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 79.3% / 20.7%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 57.3% / 42.7%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 34.9% / 65.1%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 18.2% / 81.8%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 8.2% / 91.8%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Juventus Turin × Parma Calcio
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 4.5%
0:1 3.2%
0:2 0.7%
0:3 0.1%
0:4 0.0%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 13.0%
1:1 6.0%
1:2 1.7%
1:3 0.3%
1:4 0.0%
1:5 0.0%
2
2:0 15.2%
2:1 8.1%
2:2 2.1%
2:3 0.4%
2:4 0.0%
2:5 0.0%
3
3:0 12.5%
3:1 6.6%
3:2 1.7%
3:3 0.3%
3:4 0.0%
3:5 0.0%
4
4:0 7.7%
4:1 4.0%
4:2 1.1%
4:3 0.2%
4:4 0.0%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 3.8%
5:1 2.0%
5:2 0.5%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
2:015.2%
1:013.0%
3:012.5%
2:18.1%
4:07.7%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026

Juventus Turin

8th place · 3 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 23.08.2026 away Frosinone 1:0
  • 24.05.2026 away Torino 2:2
  • 17.05.2026 home Fiorentina 0:2
  • 09.05.2026 away Lecce 1:0
  • 03.05.2026 home Verona 1:1

Parma Calcio

14th place · 0 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 22.08.2026 home Cagliari 0:1
  • 24.05.2026 home Sassuolo 1:0
  • 17.05.2026 away Como 0:1
  • 10.05.2026 home Roma 2:3
  • 03.05.2026 away Inter 0:2

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Juventus Turin wins4
Draws1
Parma Calcio wins1
Goals per match3.33
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
  • 01.02.2026 Parma Calcio 1:4 Juventus Turin
  • 24.08.2025 Juventus Turin 2:0 Parma Calcio
  • 23.04.2025 Parma Calcio 1:0 Juventus Turin
  • 30.10.2024 Juventus Turin 2:2 Parma Calcio
  • 21.04.2021 Juventus Turin 3:1 Parma Calcio
  • 19.12.2020 Parma Calcio 0:4 Juventus Turin

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Juventus Turin go into this Serie A meeting with a clear advantage over Parma Calcio. The available assessment places the hosts as clearly stronger, while the expected profile is medium-scoring rather than an open contest. Juventus Turin should therefore be able to control much of the match, particularly if they establish an early territorial edge and limit Parma Calcio’s opportunities to counter.

Parma Calcio face a demanding defensive task, as the forecast points towards a clean sheet for the hosts. The most plausible scorelines are 2–0, 1–0 and 3–0, all of which reflect Juventus Turin’s superior position without suggesting an excessively high-scoring game. Parma Calcio will need to remain compact and make efficient use of limited attacking situations, while Juventus Turin can focus on patient possession and avoiding unnecessary risks. Overall, the outlook favours a controlled home performance and a result shaped more by Juventus Turin’s authority than by sustained end-to-end action.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Availability

Juventus team news

Juventus forward Kenan Yildiz remains sidelined with a foot injury, while midfielder Weston McKennie is also unavailable for the Parma fixture.

Schedule

Opening round results

Juventus opened their Serie A campaign with a 1-0 win against Frosinone, whereas Parma suffered a 1-0 home defeat to Cagliari.

Match fact

Head-to-head milestone statistics

Juventus have won 28 Serie A matches against Parma, with only Roma and Milan recording more top-flight victories against the Gialloblu.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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