Lazio Rome — Genoa CFC: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.1% |
| 12 | 67.5% | |
| X2 | 58.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.3% / 31.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.4% / 60.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.3% / 80.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.0% / 92.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.8% / 97.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Lazio Rome
11th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.08.2026 away Bologna 1:0
- 23.05.2026 home Pisa 2:1
- 17.05.2026 away Roma 0:2
- 09.05.2026 home Inter 0:3
- 04.05.2026 away Cremonese 2:1
Genoa CFC
16th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Napoli 0:2
- 24.05.2026 away Lecce 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Milan 1:2
- 10.05.2026 away Fiorentina 0:0
- 02.05.2026 away Atalanta 0:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 30.01.2026 Lazio Rome 3:2 Genoa CFC
- 29.09.2025 Genoa CFC 0:3 Lazio Rome
- 23.04.2025 Genoa CFC 0:2 Lazio Rome
- 27.10.2024 Lazio Rome 3:0 Genoa CFC
- 19.04.2024 Genoa CFC 0:1 Lazio Rome
- 27.08.2023 Lazio Rome 0:1 Genoa CFC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Lazio Rome have a slight edge over Genoa CFC, with the overall assessment leaning toward the hosts while allowing for a closely contested match. The available indicators point to a low-scoring game, so control of the midfield and efficiency in limited attacking moments could be important.
The range of likely scorelines suggests that a draw remains a realistic outcome, with 1:1 and 0:0 among the leading possibilities alongside a narrow 1:0 home win. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, which reinforces the expectation of a cautious contest rather than an open exchange. Overall, Lazio Rome are clearly stronger only by a small margin, while Genoa CFC have a credible chance of taking something from the match.
What matters before kick-off
Lazio team news
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru and Adam Marusic were forced off with injuries in Lazio's Serie A opener against Bologna. Coach Gennaro Gattuso is also without Samuel Gigot, Patric, and Danilo Cataldi.
Opening matchday results
Lazio began their Serie A campaign with a 1-0 away victory against Bologna courtesy of a Davide Frattesi goal. Meanwhile, Genoa suffered a 2-0 home defeat against Napoli.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.