Lazio Rome — Genoa CFC: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.1% |
| 12 | 67.5% | |
| X2 | 58.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.3% / 31.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.4% / 60.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.3% / 80.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.0% / 92.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.8% / 97.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Lazio Rome have a slight edge over Genoa CFC, with the overall assessment leaning toward the hosts while allowing for a closely contested match. The available indicators point to a low-scoring game, so control of the midfield and efficiency in limited attacking moments could be important.
The range of likely scorelines suggests that a draw remains a realistic outcome, with 1:1 and 0:0 among the leading possibilities alongside a narrow 1:0 home win. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, which reinforces the expectation of a cautious contest rather than an open exchange. Overall, Lazio Rome are clearly stronger only by a small margin, while Genoa CFC have a credible chance of taking something from the match.
What matters before kick-off
Lazio team news
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru and Adam Marusic were forced off with injuries in Lazio's Serie A opener against Bologna. Coach Gennaro Gattuso is also without Samuel Gigot, Patric, and Danilo Cataldi.
Opening matchday results
Lazio began their Serie A campaign with a 1-0 away victory against Bologna courtesy of a Davide Frattesi goal. Meanwhile, Genoa suffered a 2-0 home defeat against Napoli.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.