Match intelligence

Union Saint-Gilloise — SV Zulte Waregem: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026

League: First Division A (Belgium) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

× Prediction missed
Union Saint-Gilloise0
:
0SV Zulte Waregem
Locked signal W1 Probability 66.5% Verdict Miss
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 66.5% Home win Union Saint-Gilloise
X 20.7% Draw
W2 12.8% Away win SV Zulte Waregem
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X87.2%
Both teams to score
Yes53.7%
Totals 2.5
Over60.2%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X87.2%
1279.3%
X233.5%
Both teams to scoreYes/No53.7% / 46.3%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 94.6% / 5.4%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 82.7% / 17.3%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 60.2% / 39.8%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 37.9% / 62.1%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 20.4% / 79.6%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 9.6% / 90.4%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Union Saint-Gilloise × SV Zulte Waregem
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 5.4%
0:1 3.0%
0:2 1.8%
0:3 0.5%
0:4 0.1%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 8.9%
1:1 9.8%
1:2 3.9%
1:3 1.2%
1:4 0.3%
1:5 0.0%
2
2:0 10.9%
2:1 9.8%
2:2 4.4%
2:3 1.3%
2:4 0.3%
2:5 0.1%
3
3:0 8.1%
3:1 7.2%
3:2 3.2%
3:3 1.0%
3:4 0.2%
3:5 0.0%
4
4:0 4.5%
4:1 4.0%
4:2 1.8%
4:3 0.5%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 2.0%
5:1 1.8%
5:2 0.8%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
2:010.9%
1:19.8%
2:19.8%
1:08.9%
3:08.1%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026

Union Saint-Gilloise

1st place · 3 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 08.08.2026 away Westerlo 5:1
  • 24.05.2026 home Anderlecht 5:1
  • 21.05.2026 away Gent 0:0
  • 17.05.2026 away Club Brugge 0:5
  • 10.05.2026 home Mechelen 3:0

SV Zulte Waregem

7th place · 3 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 09.08.2026 home Genk 2:1
  • 09.05.2026 home Dender 2:1
  • 01.05.2026 away Cercle Brugge 3:2
  • 26.04.2026 home RAAL La Louviere 4:0
  • 19.04.2026 away RAAL La Louviere 2:0

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Union Saint-Gilloise wins6
Draws0
SV Zulte Waregem wins0
Goals per match3.33
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
  • 20.12.2025 Union Saint-Gilloise 2:0 SV Zulte Waregem
  • 01.11.2025 SV Zulte Waregem 1:4 Union Saint-Gilloise
  • 05.02.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise 4:0 SV Zulte Waregem
  • 04.09.2022 SV Zulte Waregem 1:3 Union Saint-Gilloise
  • 15.12.2021 SV Zulte Waregem 0:2 Union Saint-Gilloise
  • 18.09.2021 Union Saint-Gilloise 2:1 SV Zulte Waregem

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Union Saint-Gilloise enter this First Division A meeting as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the assessment is not without uncertainty. SV Zulte Waregem face a demanding task away from home, particularly against an opponent whose profile points towards an open and productive match. The available scoring signal indicates a high-scoring contest rather than a tightly controlled encounter.

The possibility of both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so the match could develop in more than one direction. Union Saint-Gilloise have the stronger overall outlook, but SV Zulte Waregem may still find opportunities if the game becomes stretched. The most plausible scorelines include a home win by two goals, a narrow home victory, or a draw, with 2-0, 2-1 and 1-1 among the likely outcomes. Overall, the analysis favours Union Saint-Gilloise, while leaving room for an open and competitive contest.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Union Saint-Gilloise Champions League tie

Four days prior to this fixture, Union Saint-Gilloise played a Champions League qualifier against Bodo/Glimt, suffering a 3-2 defeat after extra time.

Schedule

Union Saint-Gilloise opening-day win

Union Saint-Gilloise started their league season with a convincing 5-1 away victory over Westerlo.

Schedule

Zulte Waregem opening-day win

Newly promoted Zulte Waregem opened their league campaign with a 2-1 home victory against Genk.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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