Union Saint-Gilloise — SV Zulte Waregem: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.2% |
| 12 | 79.3% | |
| X2 | 33.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.7% / 46.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.7% / 17.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.2% / 39.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.9% / 62.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.4% / 79.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.6% / 90.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Union Saint-Gilloise
1st place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 away Westerlo 5:1
- 24.05.2026 home Anderlecht 5:1
- 21.05.2026 away Gent 0:0
- 17.05.2026 away Club Brugge 0:5
- 10.05.2026 home Mechelen 3:0
SV Zulte Waregem
7th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Genk 2:1
- 09.05.2026 home Dender 2:1
- 01.05.2026 away Cercle Brugge 3:2
- 26.04.2026 home RAAL La Louviere 4:0
- 19.04.2026 away RAAL La Louviere 2:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 20.12.2025 Union Saint-Gilloise 2:0 SV Zulte Waregem
- 01.11.2025 SV Zulte Waregem 1:4 Union Saint-Gilloise
- 05.02.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise 4:0 SV Zulte Waregem
- 04.09.2022 SV Zulte Waregem 1:3 Union Saint-Gilloise
- 15.12.2021 SV Zulte Waregem 0:2 Union Saint-Gilloise
- 18.09.2021 Union Saint-Gilloise 2:1 SV Zulte Waregem
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Union Saint-Gilloise enter this First Division A meeting as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the assessment is not without uncertainty. SV Zulte Waregem face a demanding task away from home, particularly against an opponent whose profile points towards an open and productive match. The available scoring signal indicates a high-scoring contest rather than a tightly controlled encounter.
The possibility of both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so the match could develop in more than one direction. Union Saint-Gilloise have the stronger overall outlook, but SV Zulte Waregem may still find opportunities if the game becomes stretched. The most plausible scorelines include a home win by two goals, a narrow home victory, or a draw, with 2-0, 2-1 and 1-1 among the likely outcomes. Overall, the analysis favours Union Saint-Gilloise, while leaving room for an open and competitive contest.
What matters before kick-off
Union Saint-Gilloise Champions League tie
Four days prior to this fixture, Union Saint-Gilloise played a Champions League qualifier against Bodo/Glimt, suffering a 3-2 defeat after extra time.
Union Saint-Gilloise opening-day win
Union Saint-Gilloise started their league season with a convincing 5-1 away victory over Westerlo.
Zulte Waregem opening-day win
Newly promoted Zulte Waregem opened their league campaign with a 2-1 home victory against Genk.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.
