Match intelligence

Cercle Brugge — St. Truidense VV: Win probabilities, 14.08.2026

League: First Division A (Belgium) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Cercle Brugge3
:
3St. Truidense VV
Locked signal 1X Probability 64.2% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 37.8% Home win Cercle Brugge
X 26.4% Draw
W2 35.8% Away win St. Truidense VV
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1273.5%
Both teams to score
Yes62.0%
Totals 2.5
Over58.3%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X63.6%
1273.5%
X262.9%
Both teams to scoreYes/No62.0% / 38.0%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 94.0% / 6.0%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 81.7% / 18.3%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 58.3% / 41.7%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 35.9% / 64.1%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 18.9% / 81.1%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 8.7% / 91.3%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Cercle Brugge × St. Truidense VV
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 6.0%
0:1 6.1%
0:2 5.5%
0:3 2.8%
0:4 1.0%
0:5 0.3%
1
1:0 6.2%
1:1 12.3%
1:2 8.4%
1:3 4.2%
1:4 1.6%
1:5 0.5%
2
2:0 5.6%
2:1 8.4%
2:2 6.4%
2:3 3.2%
2:4 1.2%
2:5 0.4%
3
3:0 2.8%
3:1 4.3%
3:2 3.2%
3:3 1.6%
3:4 0.6%
3:5 0.2%
4
4:0 1.1%
4:1 1.6%
4:2 1.2%
4:3 0.6%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.3%
5:1 0.5%
5:2 0.4%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.3%
2:18.4%
1:28.4%
2:26.4%
1:06.2%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 14.08.2026

Cercle Brugge

9th place · 1 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 08.08.2026 away Standard 2:2
  • 09.05.2026 away RAAL La Louviere 1:4
  • 01.05.2026 home Waregem 2:3
  • 24.04.2026 home Dender 2:1
  • 19.04.2026 away Dender 4:1

St. Truidense VV

10th place · 1 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 08.08.2026 home Lommel SK 1:1
  • 24.05.2026 home Mechelen 3:0
  • 21.05.2026 away Anderlecht 1:3
  • 16.05.2026 home Gent 1:1
  • 09.05.2026 away Club Brugge 0:2

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Cercle Brugge wins1
Draws3
St. Truidense VV wins2
Goals per match2.83
Both teams scored6/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
  • 08.03.2026 St. Truidense VV 2:1 Cercle Brugge
  • 29.08.2025 Cercle Brugge 1:1 St. Truidense VV
  • 26.04.2025 Cercle Brugge 3:1 St. Truidense VV
  • 12.04.2025 St. Truidense VV 3:1 Cercle Brugge
  • 27.12.2024 St. Truidense VV 1:1 Cercle Brugge
  • 29.09.2024 Cercle Brugge 1:1 St. Truidense VV

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Cercle Brugge and St. Truidense VV appear evenly matched ahead of their First Division A meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with a moderate level of confidence in a balanced contest. That points to a match where control may shift between the teams rather than one dominated by either Cercle Brugge or St. Truidense VV.

The scoring outlook is medium, and both teams are likely to find the net. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, with 2:1 and 1:2 also consistent with a closely contested game. Overall, the hosts have a slight edge in the broader result signal, but the draw remains a substantial possibility and the difference between the sides looks limited.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Cercle Brugge drew season opener

Cercle Brugge began their Belgian First Division A campaign on August 8, 2026, with a 2-2 away draw against Standard Liège, thanks to goals from Lukas Mondele and Christiaan Ravych.

Schedule

St. Truidense VV's previous fixture

St. Truidense VV prepared for this match following a 1-1 home draw against Lommel SK in their previous fixture on August 8, 2026.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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