Match intelligence

Oud-Heverlee Leuven — Club Brugge: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026

League: First Division A (Belgium) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Oud-Heverlee Leuven0
:
3Club Brugge
Locked signal W2 Probability 65.3% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 14.3% Home win Oud-Heverlee Leuven
X 20.4% Draw
W2 65.3% Away win Club Brugge
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X285.7%
Both teams to score
Yes61.3%
Totals 2.5
Over67.6%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X34.7%
1279.6%
X285.7%
Both teams to scoreYes/No61.3% / 38.7%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 95.7% / 4.3%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 87.4% / 12.6%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 67.6% / 32.4%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 46.0% / 54.0%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 27.1% / 72.9%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 14.0% / 86.0%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Oud-Heverlee Leuven × Club Brugge
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 4.3%
0:1 6.2%
0:2 8.9%
0:3 7.1%
0:4 4.3%
0:5 2.0%
1
1:0 2.1%
1:1 9.2%
1:2 9.6%
1:3 7.7%
1:4 4.6%
1:5 2.2%
2
2:0 1.8%
2:1 4.3%
2:2 5.2%
2:3 4.1%
2:4 2.5%
2:5 1.2%
3
3:0 0.6%
3:1 1.6%
3:2 1.9%
3:3 1.5%
3:4 0.9%
3:5 0.4%
4
4:0 0.2%
4:1 0.4%
4:2 0.5%
4:3 0.4%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.0%
5:1 0.1%
5:2 0.1%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:29.6%
1:19.2%
0:28.9%
1:37.7%
0:37.1%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026

Oud-Heverlee Leuven

15th place · 0 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 09.08.2026 away Charleroi 1:3
  • 23.05.2026 home Genk 0:2
  • 19.05.2026 away Charleroi 1:1
  • 15.05.2026 home Antwerp 3:0
  • 08.05.2026 away Standard 1:2

Club Brugge

2nd place · 3 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 07.08.2026 home Kortrijk 3:0
  • 24.05.2026 home Gent 5:0
  • 21.05.2026 away Mechelen 2:2
  • 17.05.2026 home St. Gilloise 5:0
  • 09.05.2026 home St Truiden 2:0

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Oud-Heverlee Leuven wins0
Draws0
Club Brugge wins6
Goals per match1.83
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
  • 21.02.2026 Club Brugge 2:1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
  • 18.10.2025 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0:1 Club Brugge
  • 08.02.2025 Club Brugge 1:0 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
  • 02.11.2024 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0:1 Club Brugge
  • 10.03.2024 Club Brugge 3:1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
  • 26.11.2023 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0:1 Club Brugge

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Oud-Heverlee Leuven face Club Brugge in a First Division A meeting where the visitors hold the clearer overall edge. The confidence is moderate rather than decisive, so the match should be approached as one in which Club Brugge are better placed but still likely to face meaningful resistance. Oud-Heverlee Leuven will have home advantage and should have opportunities to challenge the visitors, particularly if they can turn the game into an open contest.

The available assessment points towards an attacking match, with a strong chance that both teams find the net. That creates a potentially lively balance: Club Brugge’s greater strength makes them the more convincing side, while Oud-Heverlee Leuven have enough attacking potential to contribute to the scoring. A narrow away victory fits the overall picture, although a draw remains a credible alternative if the hosts make the most of their chances and limit Club Brugge’s control.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Team news

Ludovit Reis leaves Club Brugge

On August 14, 2026, Club Brugge finalized the transfer of Dutch midfielder Ludovit Reis to German Bundesliga side Werder Bremen.

Schedule

Recent league results for both teams

Ahead of this fixture, Club Brugge secured a 3-0 win against KV Kortrijk, while Oud-Heverlee Leuven suffered a 3-1 defeat to Sporting Charleroi.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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