Union Saint-Gilloise — RSC Anderlecht: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.7% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 44.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.4% / 44.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.6% / 20.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.0% / 67.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.8% / 83.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.4% / 92.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Union Saint-Gilloise have a slight edge over RSC Anderlecht in this First Division A meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely contested match rather than a clear gap between the sides. The available assessment leans toward the hosts, but it does not suggest that the game will be decided comfortably or early.
The expected pattern is medium-scoring, with both teams scoring remaining difficult to call. A 1:1 draw is among the likely scorelines, while 2:1 and 2:0 also fit the outlook in favour of Union Saint-Gilloise. RSC Anderlecht should therefore remain competitive, particularly if they can keep the contest balanced and limit the hosts' opportunities. Overall, the match appears finely poised, with a narrow home advantage rather than a decisive prediction.
What matters before kick-off
Anderlecht coming off Europa League qualifying win
Anderlecht play Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgian Pro League just three days after hosting Kairat Almaty and securing a 3-0 victory in their UEFA Europa League qualifier.
Recent cup final triumph
Union SG defeated Anderlecht 3-1 in the 2026 Belgian Cup final held at the King Baudouin Stadium in May 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.