Union Saint-Gilloise — Real Sociedad San Sebastian: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
39.7%
Home win
Union Saint-Gilloise
X
26.6%
Draw
W2
33.7%
Away win
Real Sociedad San Sebastian
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.4%
Both teams to score
Yes63.5%
Totals 2.5
Over60.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.3% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 60.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.5% / 36.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.0% / 17.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.6% / 62.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
Goal distribution model
Union Saint-Gilloise × Real Sociedad San Sebastian
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.9%
0:1
5.2%
0:2
4.9%
0:3
2.4%
0:4
0.9%
0:5
0.3%
1
1:0
5.8%
1:1
12.2%
1:2
8.0%
1:3
4.0%
1:4
1.5%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
5.9%
2:1
8.7%
2:2
6.5%
2:3
3.2%
2:4
1.2%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
3.2%
3:1
4.7%
3:2
3.5%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.3%
4:1
1.9%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.2%
2:18.7%
1:28.0%
2:26.5%
0:05.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Antwerp 2:0
- 12.09.2026 home Lommel SK 5:0
- 05.09.2026 away Charleroi 3:2
- 02.09.2026 away St Truiden 3:0
- 30.08.2026 home Anderlecht 3:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Valencia 3:2
- 13.09.2026 home Ath Madrid 0:3
- 07.09.2026 away Elche 3:2
- 03.09.2026 home Celta 0:0
- 29.08.2026 home Espanol 2:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.25 → now 2.40 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.