Sparta Prague — Lillestroem SK: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
71.7%
Home win
Sparta Prague
X
16.8%
Draw
W2
11.5%
Away win
Lillestroem SK
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X88.5%
Both teams to score
Yes52.9%
Totals 2.5
Over63.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.5% |
| 12 | 83.2% | |
| X2 | 28.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.1% / 15.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.8% / 58.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.6% / 76.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
Goal distribution model
Sparta Prague × Lillestroem SK
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.8%
0:1
3.2%
0:2
1.4%
0:3
0.4%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
9.0%
1:1
7.9%
1:2
3.4%
1:3
1.0%
1:4
0.2%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
10.9%
2:1
9.5%
2:2
4.1%
2:3
1.2%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
8.8%
3:1
7.7%
3:2
3.3%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
5.4%
4:1
4.6%
4:2
2.0%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
2.6%
5:1
2.3%
5:2
1.0%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:010.9%
2:19.5%
1:09.0%
3:08.8%
1:17.9%
Odds movement
| X | was 5.00 → now 5.25 |
| W2 | was 7.00 → now 7.50 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.