Olympique Lyon — Crystal Palace: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
44.3%
Home win
Olympique Lyon
X
25.6%
Draw
W2
30.0%
Away win
Crystal Palace
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.4%
Both teams to score
Yes63.7%
Totals 2.5
Over61.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.0% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 55.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.6% / 16.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.2% / 38.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.9% / 61.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.3% / 78.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
Goal distribution model
Olympique Lyon × Crystal Palace
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.4%
0:1
4.8%
0:2
4.2%
0:3
2.0%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
6.2%
1:1
11.7%
1:2
7.4%
1:3
3.5%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.5%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
6.5%
2:3
3.1%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
3.8%
3:1
5.3%
3:2
3.8%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.6%
4:1
2.3%
4:2
1.6%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
0.8%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.7%
2:19.1%
1:27.4%
2:26.5%
2:06.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Rennes 4:0
- 12.09.2026 away Paris FC 0:0
- 04.09.2026 home Auxerre 3:1
- 29.08.2026 home Le Havre 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Toulouse 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Leeds 0:0
- 12.09.2026 home Ipswich 2:3
- 05.09.2026 away Fulham 3:2
- 28.08.2026 home Man City 1:4
- 22.08.2026 away Everton 0:2
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.25 → now 2.15 |
| W2 | was 2.80 → now 3.10 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.