NK Celje — AC Omonia Nicosia: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
38.0%
Home win
NK Celje
X
28.3%
Draw
W2
33.7%
Away win
AC Omonia Nicosia
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1271.7%
Both teams to score
Yes60.2%
Totals 2.5
Over55.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.3% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 62.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.2% / 39.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.7% / 7.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.2% / 19.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.9% / 67.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.7% / 83.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
Goal distribution model
NK Celje × AC Omonia Nicosia
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.3%
0:1
6.0%
0:2
5.4%
0:3
2.5%
0:4
0.9%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
6.5%
1:1
13.4%
1:2
8.1%
1:3
3.8%
1:4
1.3%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
6.2%
2:1
8.7%
2:2
6.1%
2:3
2.8%
2:4
1.0%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
3.1%
3:1
4.3%
3:2
3.0%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.2%
4:1
1.6%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.5%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.4%
2:18.7%
1:28.1%
0:07.3%
1:06.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
NK Celje
Last 4 matches · latest first
- 16.09.2026 away Bayer Leverkusen 0:2
- 11.08.2026 home FC Ararat-Armenia 2:0
- 04.08.2026 away FC Ararat-Armenia 1:2
- 28.07.2026 home KF Egnatia Rrogozhine 6:3
AC Omonia Nicosia
Last 4 matches · latest first
- 16.09.2026 home RC Celta de Vigo 1:0
- 13.08.2026 home Lincoln Red Imps 1:0
- 06.08.2026 away Lincoln Red Imps 1:1
- 29.07.2026 away FC Kairat Almaty 5:7
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: oddmind.app. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.40 → now 2.50 |
| W2 | was 2.70 → now 2.80 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.