KKS Lech Poznan — Bayer Leverkusen: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
18.1%
Home win
KKS Lech Poznan
X
21.8%
Draw
W2
60.1%
Away win
Bayer Leverkusen
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X281.9%
Both teams to score
Yes64.0%
Totals 2.5
Over67.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 39.9% |
| 12 | 78.2% | |
| X2 | 81.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.0% / 36.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.7% / 4.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.5% / 32.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.8% / 54.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.0% / 73.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
Goal distribution model
KKS Lech Poznan × Bayer Leverkusen
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.3%
0:1
5.9%
0:2
8.0%
0:3
6.0%
0:4
3.4%
0:5
1.6%
1
1:0
2.6%
1:1
9.6%
1:2
9.6%
1:3
7.3%
1:4
4.1%
1:5
1.9%
2
2:0
2.3%
2:1
5.1%
2:2
5.8%
2:3
4.4%
2:4
2.5%
2:5
1.1%
3
3:0
0.9%
3:1
2.1%
3:2
2.3%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.5%
4
4:0
0.3%
4:1
0.6%
4:2
0.7%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:19.6%
1:29.6%
0:28.0%
1:37.3%
0:36.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
KKS Lech Poznan
Last 4 matches · latest first
- 17.09.2026 away Crystal Palace 0:4
- 14.08.2026 away KI Klaksvik 5:0
- 06.08.2026 home KI Klaksvik 1:0
- 29.07.2026 home AGF Aarhus 1:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home RB Leipzig 2:0
- 12.09.2026 away Augsburg 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Union Berlin 4:0
- 29.08.2026 away Elversberg 2:3
- 16.05.2026 home Hamburg 1:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 4.50 → now 5.00 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.