FC Salzburg — AC Milan: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
23.1%
Home win
FC Salzburg
X
23.1%
Draw
W2
53.7%
Away win
AC Milan
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X276.9%
Both teams to score
Yes62.5%
Totals 2.5
Over63.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 46.3% |
| 12 | 76.9% | |
| X2 | 76.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.5% / 37.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.2% / 15.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.0% / 37.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.8% / 59.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.8% / 77.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
Goal distribution model
FC Salzburg × AC Milan
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.6%
0:1
7.0%
0:2
7.7%
0:3
5.1%
0:4
2.5%
0:5
1.0%
1
1:0
4.1%
1:1
10.4%
1:2
9.7%
1:3
6.4%
1:4
3.2%
1:5
1.3%
2
2:0
3.1%
2:1
6.1%
2:2
6.1%
2:3
4.0%
2:4
2.0%
2:5
0.8%
3
3:0
1.3%
3:1
2.6%
3:2
2.5%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.4%
4:1
0.8%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.4%
1:29.7%
0:27.7%
0:17.0%
1:36.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
FC Salzburg
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 17.09.2026 away PFC Levski Sofia 1:0
- 13.08.2026 away Pafos FC 3:3
- 06.08.2026 home Pafos FC 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Lecce 3:0
- 12.09.2026 away Lazio 2:2
- 06.09.2026 away Juventus 1:1
- 28.08.2026 home Venezia 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Torino 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
FC Salzburg wins0
Draws1
AC Milan wins1
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored1/2
Over 2.5 goals1/2
- 02.11.2022 AC Milan 4:0 Red Bull Salzburg
- 06.09.2022 Red Bull Salzburg 1:1 AC Milan
Sources: football-data.co.uk, API-Football. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.75 → now 4.00 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.