AZ Alkmaar — Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
75.4%
Home win
AZ Alkmaar
X
15.2%
Draw
W2
9.4%
Away win
Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X90.6%
Both teams to score
Yes52.7%
Totals 2.5
Over67.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.6% |
| 12 | 84.8% | |
| X2 | 24.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.7% / 47.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.2% / 13.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.2% / 32.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.7% / 73.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
Goal distribution model
AZ Alkmaar × Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.3%
0:1
2.5%
0:2
1.1%
0:3
0.3%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
8.1%
1:1
7.1%
1:2
2.9%
1:3
0.8%
1:4
0.2%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
10.8%
2:1
9.0%
2:2
3.8%
2:3
1.1%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
9.5%
3:1
7.9%
3:2
3.3%
3:3
0.9%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
6.2%
4:1
5.2%
4:2
2.2%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
3.3%
5:1
2.7%
5:2
1.1%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:010.8%
3:09.5%
2:19.0%
1:08.1%
3:17.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Telstar 1:0
- 11.09.2026 home Willem II 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Heerenveen 3:2
- 29.08.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 5:2
- 22.08.2026 away For Sittard 2:0
Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC
Last 4 matches · latest first
- 16.09.2026 home GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0:0
- 11.08.2026 away FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 2:0
- 04.08.2026 home FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 1:0
- 29.07.2026 home Vikingur Reykjavik 2:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 5.25 → now 5.75 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.