Union Saint-Gilloise — Oud-Heverlee Leuven: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 91.8% |
| 12 | 85.7% | |
| X2 | 22.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.2% / 13.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.3% / 32.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.7% / 54.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.9% / 73.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Union Saint-Gilloise
1st place · 19 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Antwerp 2:0
- 12.09.2026 home Lommel SK 5:0
- 05.09.2026 away Charleroi 3:2
- 02.09.2026 away St Truiden 3:0
- 30.08.2026 home Anderlecht 3:0
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
15th place · 4 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home RAAL La Louviere 2:0
- 12.09.2026 home Cercle Brugge 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Beveren 0:3
- 03.09.2026 away Gent 0:1
- 29.08.2026 home Standard 1:2
This season: Union Saint-Gilloise at home vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven away
| Metric | Union Saint-Gilloise · at home | Oud-Heverlee Leuven · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 0–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 0.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.92 | 0.90 |
| xG against per match | 0.99 | 2.27 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.33 | 2.67 |
| Corners per match | 6.33 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 24.01.2026 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0:0 Union Saint-Gilloise
- 03.08.2025 Union Saint-Gilloise 5:0 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 19.01.2025 Union Saint-Gilloise 1:0 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 24.11.2024 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1:1 Union Saint-Gilloise
- 02.03.2024 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0:2 Union Saint-Gilloise
- 12.08.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise 5:1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Union Saint-Gilloise come into this First Division A fixture as the clearly stronger side, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high-confidence edge. The attacking outlook also points toward an open contest, with a high-scoring game considered more likely. The most prominent scoreline scenarios favour Union Saint-Gilloise, although Oud-Heverlee Leuven remain capable of contributing to the final score.
For Oud-Heverlee Leuven, the main challenge will be managing a matchup in which Union Saint-Gilloise are rated substantially higher. The scoring assessment suggests that goals could be a significant feature of the game, while the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. Overall, the analysis points toward a home victory as the strongest outcome signal, without removing the uncertainty inherent in the match.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.