Union Saint-Gilloise — Lommel SK: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.1% |
| 12 | 88.0% | |
| X2 | 17.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.1% / 2.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.5% / 30.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.1% / 70.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 5.50 → now 6.00 |
| W2 | was 10.00 → now 11.00 |
Match preview
Union Saint-Gilloise go into this First Division A meeting as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. Lommel SK face a demanding task, particularly against a hosts’ profile that points toward an open and high-scoring match rather than a tightly controlled contest. The overall signal favours Union Saint-Gilloise, but the available assessment does not remove all uncertainty from the result.
The expected scoring pattern gives Union Saint-Gilloise the stronger platform, while Lommel SK’s prospects of finding the net remain difficult to judge. Both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced, so the match could develop either into a one-sided home performance or a more competitive game if Lommel SK take advantage of their opportunities. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1, all of which point to Union Saint-Gilloise controlling the key phases while the visitors work to stay involved.
What matters before kick-off
Upcoming European Campaign
Shortly after facing Lommel SK on 12 September 2026, Union Saint-Gilloise will start their UEFA Europa League main phase campaign away against Viktoria Plzeň on 17 September.
Recent League Result
In their previous Belgian First Division A fixture on 5 September 2026, Union Saint-Gilloise earned a 3-2 away victory against Sporting Charleroi.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.