Union Saint-Gilloise — Lommel SK: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.1% |
| 12 | 88.0% | |
| X2 | 17.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.1% / 2.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.5% / 30.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.1% / 70.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Union Saint-Gilloise
2nd place · 13 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Charleroi 3:2
- 02.09.2026 away St Truiden 3:0
- 30.08.2026 home Anderlecht 3:0
- 15.08.2026 home Waregem 0:0
- 08.08.2026 away Westerlo 5:1
Lommel SK
10th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 home Club Brugge 0:1
- 29.08.2026 away Cercle Brugge 1:0
- 23.08.2026 home Westerlo 4:0
- 16.08.2026 home Charleroi 0:1
- 08.08.2026 away St Truiden 1:1
This season: Union Saint-Gilloise at home vs Lommel SK away
| Metric | Union Saint-Gilloise · at home | Lommel SK · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.25 | 1.57 |
| xG against per match | 1.16 | 1.62 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 2.50 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Union Saint-Gilloise go into this First Division A fixture as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. Lommel SK face a demanding task against opponents whose profile points towards an open, high-scoring match rather than a cautious contest. The available assessment gives Union Saint-Gilloise the main advantage, while still leaving room for variation in how the game develops.
Both teams scoring is regarded as an even possibility, so the stronger home position does not automatically imply that Lommel SK will be shut out. The most likely scorelines all favour Union Saint-Gilloise, with 2:0, 3:0 and 4:0 identified as the leading possibilities. Overall, the balance of the preview is firmly with Union Saint-Gilloise, while the high-scoring classification suggests that the match could become increasingly open if the hosts establish control early.
What matters before kick-off
Upcoming European Campaign
Shortly after facing Lommel SK on 12 September 2026, Union Saint-Gilloise will start their UEFA Europa League main phase campaign away against Viktoria Plzeň on 17 September.
Recent League Result
In their previous Belgian First Division A fixture on 5 September 2026, Union Saint-Gilloise earned a 3-2 away victory against Sporting Charleroi.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.