Oud-Heverlee Leuven — Cercle Brugge: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.0% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 62.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.5% / 34.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.6% / 15.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.4% / 37.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.1% / 59.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.2% / 77.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
17th place · 0 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Beveren 0:3
- 03.09.2026 away Gent 0:1
- 29.08.2026 home Standard 1:2
- 15.08.2026 home Club Brugge 0:3
- 09.08.2026 away Charleroi 1:3
Cercle Brugge
14th place · 2 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Gent 0:3
- 29.08.2026 home Lommel SK 0:1
- 23.08.2026 away Club Brugge 0:1
- 14.08.2026 home St Truiden 3:3
- 08.08.2026 away Standard 2:2
This season: Oud-Heverlee Leuven at home vs Cercle Brugge away
| Metric | Oud-Heverlee Leuven · at home | Cercle Brugge · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.31 | 1.23 |
| xG against per match | 2.15 | 2.18 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.12.2025 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0:2 Cercle Brugge
- 08.11.2025 Cercle Brugge 1:2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 22.12.2024 Cercle Brugge 1:0 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 18.08.2024 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1:1 Cercle Brugge
- 16.12.2023 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1:2 Cercle Brugge
- 07.10.2023 Cercle Brugge 3:2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Oud-Heverlee Leuven and Cercle Brugge appear evenly matched ahead of their First Division A meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts no clear advantage over the visitors, with a moderate level of confidence in that reading. That suggests a contest in which the balance could shift during the match rather than one side controlling the outcome from the start.
The main attacking signal points towards an open game, with both teams likely to score. The high-scoring expectation indicates that defensive stability may be tested at both ends, particularly if either side takes an early initiative. Oud-Heverlee Leuven will have home advantage, while Cercle Brugge will look to impose enough pressure to remain involved in the contest. Overall, the match profile favours an even encounter with opportunities for both teams, although the available information does not establish a decisive edge for either side.
What matters before kick-off
OH Leuven's difficult run
OH Leuven enter the match having lost their last five Belgian Pro League fixtures, including a 3-0 defeat against SK Beveren.
Cercle Brugge's losing streak
Cercle Brugge have suffered three straight defeats in the league, most recently losing 3-0 at home to Gent.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.