KRC Genk — KAA Gent: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.2% |
| 12 | 73.1% | |
| X2 | 54.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.2% / 43.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.7% / 7.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.3% / 22.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.1% / 69.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.2% / 93.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
KRC Genk
9th place · 8 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Anderlecht 0:0
- 28.08.2026 home Beveren 4:0
- 22.08.2026 away Antwerp 4:4
- 15.08.2026 home Westerlo 3:2
- 09.08.2026 away Waregem 1:2
KAA Gent
2nd place · 15 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Cercle Brugge 3:0
- 03.09.2026 home Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Club Brugge 2:1
- 16.08.2026 away RAAL La Louviere 2:1
- 09.08.2026 home Mechelen 2:0
This season: KRC Genk at home vs KAA Gent away
| Metric | KRC Genk · at home | KAA Gent · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 3.65 | 1.21 |
| xG against per match | 0.73 | 0.52 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.03.2026 KRC Genk 3:0 KAA Gent
- 09.11.2025 KAA Gent 1:1 KRC Genk
- 18.05.2025 KAA Gent 1:4 KRC Genk
- 30.03.2025 KRC Genk 4:0 KAA Gent
- 23.02.2025 KRC Genk 0:0 KAA Gent
- 27.10.2024 KAA Gent 0:2 KRC Genk
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
KRC Genk have a slight edge over KAA Gent in this First Division A meeting, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest that remains finely balanced. The available assessment points towards a medium-scoring match, with neither side holding a clear advantage in the likelihood of both teams finding the net.
The main signal supports KRC Genk avoiding defeat, while the range of likely scorelines reflects several plausible paths through the game. A 1:1 draw is among the leading possibilities, with narrow KRC Genk wins such as 2:1 or 1:0 also featuring prominently. KAA Gent therefore remain capable of making the match competitive, particularly if they can keep the game level for long periods. Overall, the profile favours KRC Genk modestly, but it does not point to a decisive separation between the teams.
What matters before kick-off
Tobe Leysen returns to Genk
In early September, 24-year-old goalkeeper Tobe Leysen rejoined KRC Genk from OH Leuven, signing a five-year contract through 2031.
Pre-break result: Anderlecht 0-0 Genk
In their final First Division A fixture before the international break, KRC Genk played out a 0-0 away draw against Anderlecht on September 6, 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.