KRC Genk — KAA Gent: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.1% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.7% / 42.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.2% / 20.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.5% / 44.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.1% / 66.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
KRC Genk face KAA Gent in a First Division A meeting where the hosts hold a slight edge. The available assessment points towards a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, with the home advantage giving KRC Genk the stronger position in the overall outcome. The 1X signal also supports a cautious view that KRC Genk should avoid defeat, although KAA Gent remain capable of making the match closely contested.
The expected scoring profile is medium-scoring, with plausible outcomes including 1:1, 2:1 and 1:0. That range reflects a game that could be decided by narrow margins, while a draw remains a realistic possibility. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so there is no clear expectation on that specific angle. Overall, KRC Genk have the more favourable outlook, but the balance of the likely scores suggests that KAA Gent should remain competitive throughout.
What matters before kick-off
Lucca Brughmans Transfer Agreement
On September 1, 2026, Liverpool announced an agreement to sign 18-year-old KRC Genk goalkeeper Lucca Brughmans. As part of the deal, Brughmans remains on loan at Genk for the 2026–27 season.
Tobe Leysen Returns to Genk
On September 3, 2026, 24-year-old goalkeeper Tobe Leysen rejoined KRC Genk from OH Leuven. The academy graduate signed a five-year contract keeping him at the club until 2031.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.