Union Saint-Gilloise — Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.6% |
| 12 | 82.2% | |
| X2 | 30.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.1% / 43.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.6% / 34.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.7% / 56.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.2% / 74.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.7% / 87.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.10.2026 home Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1:1
- 20.09.2026 away Antwerp 2:0
- 12.09.2026 home Lommel SK 5:0
- 05.09.2026 away Charleroi 3:2
- 02.09.2026 away St Truiden 3:0
Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.10.2026 away AZ Alkmaar 1:2
- 16.09.2026 home GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0:0
- 11.08.2026 away FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 2:0
- 04.08.2026 home FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 1:0
- 29.07.2026 home Vikingur Reykjavik 2:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.33 → now 1.40 |
| X | was 5.50 → now 5.00 |
| W2 | was 7.50 → now 7.00 |
Match preview
Union Saint-Gilloise come into this UEFA Europa League meeting with Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC in stronger recent form, making the hosts the clear favourites on the overall balance of the matchup. They have won four of their last five matches and drawn the other, scoring 14 goals while conceding just three. That combination of attacking productivity and defensive solidity provides a convincing foundation for their position ahead of this fixture.
Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC have also shown positive signs, with three wins and a draw in their last five matches. Their record of six goals scored and two conceded suggests a team capable of defending effectively, although their recent defeat contrasts with Union Saint-Gilloise's unbeaten run. The visitors' defensive numbers offer some encouragement, but they face a home side that has been considerably more productive in front of goal.
The overall expectation is for Union Saint-Gilloise to control more of the contest and create the stronger attacking threat. The hosts have demonstrated greater scoring output and more consistent results, giving them a clear advantage entering the match. A relatively open game is plausible given Union Saint-Gilloise's recent attacking form, while Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC may still find opportunities to contribute. The central question is whether the visitors can disrupt the hosts' momentum enough to make the contest more balanced.
What matters before kick-off
Neutral venue fixture
The match between Union Saint-Gilloise and Hapoel Be'er Sheva will take place at a neutral venue, the Merkur Spiel-Arena in Dusseldorf.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.