FC Ararat-Armenia — AZ Alkmaar: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 28.1% |
| 12 | 82.0% | |
| X2 | 89.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.5% / 13.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.6% / 55.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.9% / 74.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.2% / 86.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.10.2026
FC Ararat-Armenia
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.10.2026 away Jagiellonia Bialystok 1:3
- 16.09.2026 home Sparta Prague 1:4
- 11.08.2026 away NK Celje 0:2
- 04.08.2026 home NK Celje 2:1
- 28.07.2026 away Shamrock Rovers 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Cambuur 2:2
- 10.10.2026 away Feyenoord 0:2
- 20.09.2026 home Telstar 1:0
- 11.09.2026 home Willem II 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Heerenveen 3:2
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 6.25 → now 8.50 |
| X | was 4.33 → now 5.00 |
| W2 | was 1.50 → now 1.36 |
Match preview
FC Ararat-Armenia face a difficult challenge against AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League, with the visitors holding a clear overall advantage. The recent form of both sides supports this assessment. FC Ararat-Armenia have lost four of their last five matches, recording just one win while conceding 12 goals and scoring five.
What matters before kick-off
Historic achievement for Ararat-Armenia
FC Ararat-Armenia made history this season by becoming the first Armenian club to qualify for the league phase of the UEFA Europa League.
First head-to-head meeting
This fixture marks the first competitive meeting between FC Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar. The Dutch side previously faced Armenian opposition in FC Noah during European competition.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.