KKS Lech Poznan — Sunderland AFC: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026

KKS Lech Poznan host Sunderland AFC in a UEFA Europa League fixture that presents a slightly stronger outlook for the visitors, although the overall assessment remains cautious. Recent results do not clearly support Sunderland AFC as the more consistent side, with both teams struggling defensively. KKS Lech Poznan have recorded two wins and three defeats in their last five matches, scoring seven goals while conceding twelve. That record suggests they can contribute in attack, but their defensive performance remains a concern ahead of this meeting.

Sunderland AFC have endured an even more difficult recent run, losing four of their last five matches and drawing the other, without recording a victory. They have scored four goals and conceded twelve over that period, highlighting problems at both ends of the pitch. Despite this poor sequence, Sunderland AFC hold a slight edge in the overall match outlook, though their recent form makes that advantage far from convincing. KKS Lech Poznan have shown greater ability to win games recently, which could keep the contest competitive, particularly on home territory. A medium-scoring match appears a reasonable expectation, with the possibility of goals at both ends remaining uncertain. The balance leans towards Sunderland AFC, but the evidence points to a contest where the margin between the teams may be narrower than that preference suggests.