SK Sturm Graz — Olympique Marseille: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026

SK Sturm Graz face a challenging test against Olympique Marseille in the UEFA Europa League, with the visitors holding a slight edge heading into the encounter. The recent form of both sides points to a competitive match, although their attacking and defensive records suggest different strengths and weaknesses. SK Sturm Graz have won just one of their last five matches, drawing one and losing three. Their main concern has been attacking productivity, with only two goals scored across that sequence, while conceding six. Improving their efficiency in front of goal will be important if they are to make home advantage count.

Olympique Marseille have also experienced inconsistency, recording two wins and three defeats in their last five matches. However, their ten goals scored over that period indicate considerably greater attacking output than their opponents have managed. Defensive reliability remains a concern, as they have conceded eight goals in the same run, leaving room for SK Sturm Graz to create opportunities. The contrast between Marseille's stronger scoring record and both teams' defensive vulnerabilities points towards a match with chances at both ends and a moderate scoring level. Overall, Olympique Marseille appear better positioned to take something from this fixture, but their recent defeats make a straightforward away victory far from certain. A draw remains a credible alternative if SK Sturm Graz can capitalize on their home advantage.