GNK Dinamo Zagreb — NEC Nijmegen: Win probabilities, 22.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.5% |
| 12 | 81.1% | |
| X2 | 32.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.4% / 41.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.1% / 13.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.2% / 33.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.4% / 55.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.8% / 74.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.1% / 86.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.10.2026
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.10.2026 home RSC Anderlecht 1:0
- 16.09.2026 away Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC 0:0
- 11.08.2026 away FK Kauno Zalgiris 2:1
- 04.08.2026 home FK Kauno Zalgiris 5:0
- 28.07.2026 home FC Thun 3:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home For Sittard 2:2
- 10.10.2026 away Ajax 1:1
- 20.09.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 1:1
- 12.09.2026 away Cambuur 0:3
- 08.09.2026 home Excelsior 2:2
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.62 → now 1.44 |
| X | was 4.20 → now 4.75 |
| W2 | was 5.00 → now 6.50 |
Match preview
GNK Dinamo Zagreb enter this UEFA Europa League meeting with NEC Nijmegen in stronger recent form, giving the hosts a slight edge. They have won four of their last five matches and drawn the other, scoring 11 goals while conceding just three. That combination of consistent results and defensive solidity provides a strong foundation for their approach at home. NEC Nijmegen, by contrast, have drawn four of their last five games and lost the other, leaving them without a win during that run.
The main contrast is between GNK Dinamo Zagreb’s ability to turn performances into victories and NEC Nijmegen’s tendency to settle for draws. The visitors have scored six goals across their last five matches but conceded nine, suggesting they have been less secure defensively than their opponents. If GNK Dinamo Zagreb can maintain their recent attacking efficiency, they should have opportunities to take control, although NEC Nijmegen have shown enough scoring ability to remain a threat.
A competitive match with goals from both sides is a reasonable expectation. GNK Dinamo Zagreb hold the clearer overall advantage based on recent results, but NEC Nijmegen’s run of draws points to a team capable of keeping games close. The hosts are better placed to secure the win, though a draw remains a credible alternative.
What matters before kick-off
Dinamo Zagreb recent form
Dinamo Zagreb remain unbeaten in the UEFA Europa League league phase after a 1-0 victory over Anderlecht on matchday two, which they followed up with a 5-1 domestic win ahead of matchday three.
NEC Nijmegen's European return
NEC Nijmegen are competing in a main European campaign for the first time since the 2008/09 season, entering the Europa League main phase following their Champions League qualifying run.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.