Union Saint-Gilloise — Cercle Brugge: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.5% |
| 12 | 83.8% | |
| X2 | 25.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.4% / 48.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.7% / 35.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.7% / 57.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.4% / 75.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Union Saint-Gilloise
4th place · 20 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.10.2026 home Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1:1
- 20.09.2026 away Antwerp 2:0
- 12.09.2026 home Lommel SK 5:0
- 05.09.2026 away Charleroi 3:2
- 02.09.2026 away St Truiden 3:0
Cercle Brugge
17th place · 3 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.10.2026 home Anderlecht 1:2
- 19.09.2026 away Charleroi 2:3
- 12.09.2026 away Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Gent 0:3
- 29.08.2026 home Lommel SK 0:1
This season: Union Saint-Gilloise at home vs Cercle Brugge away
| Metric | Union Saint-Gilloise · at home | Cercle Brugge · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–0 | 0–2–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.25 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.25 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.76 | 1.54 |
| xG against per match | 1.08 | 1.83 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 3.75 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.12.2025 Cercle Brugge 1:1 Union Saint-Gilloise
- 22.11.2025 Union Saint-Gilloise 2:0 Cercle Brugge
- 08.12.2024 Cercle Brugge 0:0 Union Saint-Gilloise
- 27.10.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise 1:3 Cercle Brugge
- 19.05.2024 Cercle Brugge 1:2 Union Saint-Gilloise
- 07.04.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise 2:3 Cercle Brugge
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Union Saint-Gilloise enter their First Division A meeting with Cercle Brugge on October 25 as clear favourites, supported by strong recent form and a convincing home record. The hosts sit fourth in the league with 20 points from eight matches, having won four of their last five games and drawn the other. They have scored 14 goals while conceding just three during that period. Their home performances are equally encouraging, with two wins and two draws from four fixtures, nine goals scored and only one conceded.
Cercle Brugge face a considerably tougher challenge. Sitting 17th with just three points, the visitors have lost four of their last five matches, conceding 10 goals. Their away record offers limited encouragement, with two draws and two defeats from four outings. Union Saint-Gilloise also create clearly more chances than they allow at home, reinforcing their attacking advantage.
The overall outlook favours a home victory, potentially in a relatively high-scoring encounter. However, whether both teams score remains uncertain. Their previous meeting ended 1-1, offering a reminder that Cercle Brugge can still provide resistance despite the current imbalance.
What matters before kick-off
Recent European result for Union SG
Union Saint-Gilloise recently played in the UEFA Europa League, securing a 4-0 home victory against Hapoel Be'er-Sheva three days before this fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.