Oud-Heverlee Leuven — Lommel SK: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.1% |
| 12 | 75.4% | |
| X2 | 48.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.3% / 15.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.2% / 37.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.0% / 60.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.1% / 77.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
15th place · 5 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.10.2026 away St. Gilloise 1:1
- 19.09.2026 home RAAL La Louviere 2:0
- 12.09.2026 home Cercle Brugge 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Beveren 0:3
- 03.09.2026 away Gent 0:1
Lommel SK
10th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.10.2026 away Beveren 3:1
- 19.09.2026 home Mechelen 0:0
- 12.09.2026 away St. Gilloise 0:5
- 04.09.2026 home Club Brugge 0:1
- 29.08.2026 away Cercle Brugge 1:0
This season: Oud-Heverlee Leuven at home vs Lommel SK away
| Metric | Oud-Heverlee Leuven · at home | Lommel SK · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–2 | 2–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.10 | 1.32 |
| xG against per match | 1.59 | 1.81 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.50 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Oud-Heverlee Leuven come into this meeting with a slight edge, although their recent form has been inconsistent. They have won once, drawn twice and lost twice across their last five matches, scoring 4 goals and conceding 6. At home, the record is similar: one win, one draw and two losses from four matches, with 4 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their 15th-place position after eight matches underlines the need for greater consistency.
Lommel SK sit higher in 10th place with 11 points, and their recent record of two wins, one draw and two losses is marginally stronger. Their away record is also competitive, with two wins, one draw and one loss from four matches, though they have conceded 7 goals while scoring 5. Both sides have shown defensive vulnerability, while each has also produced periods of positive results. Overall, Oud-Heverlee Leuven have a slight advantage, but the balance remains close enough for Lommel SK to make this a competitive contest, with goals likely at both ends.
What matters before kick-off
Recent League Results
In their previous Pro League match, Oud-Heverlee Leuven drew 1-1 away against Union Saint-Gilloise, while Lommel secured a 3-1 away victory over SK Beveren.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.