KRC Genk — Standard Liege: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.8% |
| 12 | 76.9% | |
| X2 | 42.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.7% / 16.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.4% / 60.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
KRC Genk
7th place · 12 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.10.2026 home Kortrijk 3:0
- 20.09.2026 away Club Brugge 0:3
- 13.09.2026 home Gent 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Anderlecht 0:0
- 28.08.2026 home Beveren 4:0
Standard Liege
9th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.10.2026 home Charleroi 0:1
- 18.09.2026 away Gent 1:2
- 12.09.2026 away Westerlo 2:4
- 05.09.2026 home Antwerp 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2:1
This season: KRC Genk at home vs Standard Liege away
| Metric | KRC Genk · at home | Standard Liege · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–1–0 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.75 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 2.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.50 | 1.34 |
| xG against per match | 0.75 | 1.84 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.50 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.25 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.05.2026 Standard Liege 0:0 KRC Genk
- 25.04.2026 KRC Genk 1:1 Standard Liege
- 22.02.2026 KRC Genk 0:3 Standard Liege
- 10.08.2025 Standard Liege 2:1 KRC Genk
- 14.02.2025 Standard Liege 1:2 KRC Genk
- 28.07.2024 KRC Genk 0:0 Standard Liege
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 4.33 → now 4.50 |
Match preview
KRC Genk have a slight edge over Standard Liege ahead of this First Division A meeting, primarily because of their strong home record and greater control of chances on their own ground. KRC Genk have won three of their four home matches this season, scoring 11 goals and conceding just three. Their overall recent form is also relatively stable, with two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five matches. Although they sit seventh in the league, their home performances suggest they can create sustained pressure and limit the opposition's opportunities.
Standard Liege face a more difficult challenge away from home. They have won only one of their four away matches, losing two and conceding 10 goals. Their recent results have been less consistent, with three defeats in their last five games, despite winning their two most recent matches before that run's earlier results are considered. The gap between the sides in the league is narrow, so Standard Liege should not be discounted, particularly given their capacity to score.
The overall balance favours KRC Genk, but the likelihood of both teams finding the net makes this an interesting attacking contest. Standard Liege's defensive vulnerability away from home gives the hosts an advantage, while the visitors may still find opportunities against them.
What matters before kick-off
Special Kickoff Ceremony
KRC Genk legend Mike Origi and his son Divock Origi will jointly perform the ceremonial kickoff ahead of the match against Standard Liege at the Cegeka Arena.
Genk Home Record Target
KRC Genk entered round 9 of the Belgian Pro League against Standard Liege looking to maintain their undefeated record at home.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.