KAA Gent — RSC Anderlecht: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.6% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.6% / 24.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.2% / 71.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.4% / 86.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
KAA Gent
1st place · 22 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.10.2026 away Waregem 2:0
- 18.09.2026 home Standard 2:1
- 13.09.2026 away Genk 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Cercle Brugge 3:0
- 03.09.2026 home Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1:0
RSC Anderlecht
5th place · 16 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.10.2026 away Cercle Brugge 2:1
- 19.09.2026 home Waregem 3:0
- 11.09.2026 away Mechelen 1:0
- 06.09.2026 home Genk 0:0
- 03.09.2026 home Kortrijk 1:0
This season: KAA Gent at home vs RSC Anderlecht away
| Metric | KAA Gent · at home | RSC Anderlecht · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 4–0–0 | 2–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.21 | 1.09 |
| xG against per match | 0.66 | 1.04 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.75 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 6.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.05.2026 KAA Gent 1:1 RSC Anderlecht
- 12.04.2026 RSC Anderlecht 3:1 KAA Gent
- 18.01.2026 KAA Gent 4:2 RSC Anderlecht
- 23.09.2025 RSC Anderlecht 1:0 KAA Gent
- 27.04.2025 KAA Gent 0:1 RSC Anderlecht
- 23.04.2025 RSC Anderlecht 5:0 KAA Gent
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.25 → now 2.38 |
| W2 | was 3.00 → now 2.75 |
Match preview
KAA Gent enter this First Division A meeting with RSC Anderlecht in strong form, setting up a contest between two sides that have both been difficult to beat. The hosts have won four and drawn one of their last five matches, scoring nine goals and conceding just two. Their home record is particularly impressive, with four wins from four games and seven goals scored against two conceded. Sitting first in the league with 22 points, KAA Gent have established a strong foundation, and their ability to create more chances than they allow at home could be an important factor.
RSC Anderlecht arrive with a similarly consistent recent record, having also won four of their last five matches and drawn the other. Their defensive figures are even tighter over that period, with only one goal conceded, while seven goals scored underline their ability to contribute offensively. However, their away form has been less convincing, with two wins and two defeats in four matches. They occupy fifth place with 16 points, leaving them well positioned but facing a difficult test.
The teams appear evenly matched overall, although KAA Gent have a slight advantage through their home performances and league position. The most recent meeting ended 1-1, reinforcing the possibility of a close encounter. A moderate-scoring match looks plausible, with the balance of play likely to depend on whether RSC Anderlecht can maintain their defensive discipline under sustained home pressure.
What matters before kick-off
Recent results for KAA Gent
KAA Gent enter the fixture following a 2-0 defeat to Braga in the Conference League, having also been eliminated from the Belgian Cup on penalties by Rochefort.
RSC Anderlecht league form
RSC Anderlecht enter the match having won three consecutive Belgian Pro League fixtures, sitting fifth in the league standings with 16 points.
Head-to-head history
Historically, RSC Anderlecht have recorded 85 victories compared to 26 for KAA Gent across 143 encounters.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.