Match intelligence

Club Brugge — St. Truidense VV: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026

League: First Division A (Belgium) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Club Brugge3
:
2St. Truidense VV
Locked signal W1 Probability 73.9% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 73.9% Home win Club Brugge
X 14.0% Draw
W2 12.1% Away win St. Truidense VV
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X87.9%
Both teams to score
Yes64.0%
Totals 2.5
Over76.9%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X87.9%
1286.0%
X226.1%
Both teams to scoreYes/No64.0% / 36.0%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 98.5% / 1.5%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 91.0% / 9.0%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 76.9% / 23.1%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 57.6% / 42.4%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 38.1% / 61.9%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 22.2% / 77.8%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Club Brugge × St. Truidense VV
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 1.5%
0:1 2.2%
0:2 1.1%
0:3 0.4%
0:4 0.1%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 5.3%
1:1 5.5%
1:2 3.3%
1:3 1.2%
1:4 0.4%
1:5 0.1%
2
2:0 7.4%
2:1 8.4%
2:2 4.8%
2:3 1.8%
2:4 0.5%
2:5 0.1%
3
3:0 7.2%
3:1 8.2%
3:2 4.6%
3:3 1.8%
3:4 0.5%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 5.2%
4:1 5.9%
4:2 3.4%
4:3 1.3%
4:4 0.4%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 3.1%
5:1 3.5%
5:2 2.0%
5:3 0.7%
5:4 0.2%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
2:18.4%
3:18.2%
2:07.4%
3:07.2%
4:15.9%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026

Club Brugge

2nd place · 21 pts after 8

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 10.10.2026 away RAAL La Louviere 4:1
  • 20.09.2026 home Genk 3:0
  • 13.09.2026 home Antwerp 3:1
  • 04.09.2026 away Lommel SK 1:0
  • 30.08.2026 away Gent 1:2

St. Truidense VV

13th place · 8 pts after 8

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 11.10.2026 away Mechelen 3:4
  • 20.09.2026 home Westerlo 0:2
  • 12.09.2026 away Beveren 0:2
  • 05.09.2026 home RAAL La Louviere 4:0
  • 02.09.2026 home St. Gilloise 0:3

This season: Club Brugge at home vs St. Truidense VV away

Metric Club Brugge · at home St. Truidense VV · away
Matches44
W–D–L4–0–01–1–2
Goals scored per match2.502.50
Goals conceded per match0.252.50
xG for per match2.671.90
xG against per match1.481.84
Shots on target per match7.005.25
Corners per match8.004.00
Over 2.5 goals75%75%
Both teams scored25%75%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Club Brugge wins4
Draws1
St. Truidense VV wins1
Goals per match3.83
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
  • 09.05.2026 Club Brugge 2:0 St. Truidense VV
  • 11.04.2026 St. Truidense VV 1:2 Club Brugge
  • 06.12.2025 St. Truidense VV 3:2 Club Brugge
  • 21.09.2025 Club Brugge 2:0 St. Truidense VV
  • 15.02.2025 St. Truidense VV 2:2 Club Brugge
  • 23.11.2024 Club Brugge 7:0 St. Truidense VV

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

Odds movement

X was 5.25 → now 5.50
W2 was 6.50 → now 6.25
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Club Brugge enter this First Division A fixture as the clearly stronger side, with their recent form and home record providing a solid foundation. They have won four of their last five matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding just four, while their position near the top of the table reflects a strong start to the season. Their home performances have been particularly convincing: four wins from four matches, with 10 goals scored and only one conceded. Club Brugge have also demonstrated an ability to create considerably more chances than they allow at home, giving them a clear structural advantage ahead of this meeting.

St. Truidense VV face a more difficult task after losing four of their last five matches. They have conceded 11 goals across that sequence, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities that could be exposed by the hosts' attacking pressure. Although St. Truidense VV have scored 10 goals in four away matches this season, they have also conceded 10, indicating a tendency toward open games rather than consistent control. The recent head-to-head record further favours Club Brugge, who have won four of the last six meetings, including a 2-0 victory in 2026.

The overall balance points toward a home victory, with Club Brugge better positioned to dictate the tempo and generate scoring opportunities. St. Truidense VV may still find opportunities to threaten, but containing the hosts over the full match looks like their principal challenge. A relatively high-scoring contest is a reasonable expectation.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Club Brugge's Champions League result

Club Brugge enter the match following a 3-0 home victory over RC Lens in the UEFA Champions League on October 21, 2026.

Match fact

St. Truidense VV away success in Europe

Ahead of facing Club Brugge, St. Truidense VV secured a 1-0 win on the road against Danish side FC Midtjylland in the UEFA Conference League.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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