Match intelligence

KV Kortrijk — Yellow-Red KV Mechelen: Win probabilities, 23.10.2026

League: First Division A (Belgium) · Kick-off:

Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 36.0% Home win KV Kortrijk
X 26.3% Draw
W2 37.6% Away win Yellow-Red KV Mechelen
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1273.7%
Both teams to score
Yes59.3%
Totals 2.5
Over55.3%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X62.4%
1273.7%
X264.0%
Both teams to scoreYes/No59.3% / 40.7%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 93.7% / 6.3%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 79.3% / 20.7%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 55.3% / 44.7%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 33.0% / 67.0%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 16.8% / 83.2%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 7.4% / 92.6%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

KV Kortrijk × Yellow-Red KV Mechelen
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 6.3%
0:1 7.3%
0:2 5.9%
0:3 2.9%
0:4 1.1%
0:5 0.3%
1
1:0 7.1%
1:1 12.3%
1:2 8.5%
1:3 4.1%
1:4 1.5%
1:5 0.4%
2
2:0 5.6%
2:1 8.3%
2:2 6.1%
2:3 3.0%
2:4 1.1%
2:5 0.3%
3
3:0 2.7%
3:1 3.9%
3:2 2.9%
3:3 1.4%
3:4 0.5%
3:5 0.2%
4
4:0 1.0%
4:1 1.4%
4:2 1.0%
4:3 0.5%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.3%
5:1 0.4%
5:2 0.3%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.4%
1:28.5%
2:18.3%
0:17.3%
1:07.1%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 23.10.2026

KV Kortrijk

18th place · 3 pts after 8

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 10.10.2026 away Genk 0:3
  • 20.09.2026 home Beveren 1:0
  • 13.09.2026 away RAAL La Louviere 0:3
  • 06.09.2026 home Waregem 0:2
  • 03.09.2026 away Anderlecht 0:1

Yellow-Red KV Mechelen

14th place · 6 pts after 8

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 11.10.2026 home St Truiden 4:3
  • 19.09.2026 away Lommel SK 0:0
  • 11.09.2026 home Anderlecht 0:1
  • 05.09.2026 home Westerlo 0:4
  • 29.08.2026 away RAAL La Louviere 2:2

This season: KV Kortrijk at home vs Yellow-Red KV Mechelen away

Metric KV Kortrijk · at home Yellow-Red KV Mechelen · away
Matches44
W–D–L1–0–30–2–2
Goals scored per match0.500.50
Goals conceded per match2.001.50
xG for per match1.191.00
xG against per match1.121.31
Shots on target per match3.503.25
Corners per match4.253.75
Over 2.5 goals50%25%
Both teams scored25%25%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

KV Kortrijk wins1
Draws0
Yellow-Red KV Mechelen wins5
Goals per match3.83
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals6/6
  • 29.11.2024 KV Kortrijk 3:1 Yellow-Red KV Mechelen
  • 20.10.2024 Yellow-Red KV Mechelen 3:0 KV Kortrijk
  • 24.02.2024 Yellow-Red KV Mechelen 3:0 KV Kortrijk
  • 26.11.2023 KV Kortrijk 0:3 Yellow-Red KV Mechelen
  • 21.01.2023 Yellow-Red KV Mechelen 3:2 KV Kortrijk
  • 10.09.2022 KV Kortrijk 1:4 Yellow-Red KV Mechelen

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

KV Kortrijk face Yellow-Red KV Mechelen in a First Division A encounter that looks competitive overall, although the hosts have greater pressure to improve their recent performances. KV Kortrijk have lost four of their last five matches, winning only once and scoring just one goal while conceding nine. They sit 18th in the league with three points from eight games, and their home record offers limited reassurance: one win and three defeats in four matches, with eight goals conceded. Their main challenge will be to become more effective in attack while reducing the defensive vulnerabilities that have undermined their results.

Yellow-Red KV Mechelen arrive in somewhat better league standing, occupying 14th place with six points, but their recent form is also inconsistent. They have recorded one win, two draws and two losses across their last five matches, scoring six goals and conceding ten. Their away record remains a concern, with two draws and two defeats from four games. However, the historical matchup favours the visitors, who have won five of the six previous meetings, despite losing the most recent encounter 3-1 in 2024. Both sides have shown defensive weaknesses, making goals at both ends a plausible scenario. With neither team demonstrating convincing consistency, a closely contested match is the most reasonable expectation, with Yellow-Red KV Mechelen holding a slight historical advantage.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Availability

Injury updates for KV Mechelen

KV Mechelen head coach Fred Vanderbiest confirmed that Simion Michez is uncertain for the match against KV Kortrijk, while Bouke Boersma is sidelined with a muscle issue.

Team news

KV Kortrijk aiming to show new identity under Beichler

KV Kortrijk head coach Daniel Beichler stated ahead of the KV Mechelen clash that his side intends to show a new team identity with higher pressing and collective play.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

Check current terms · 1WIN18+ Bonus up to $500 Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗

Other matches

→ First Division A

OFFICIAL ODDMIND.APP TELEGRAM CHANNEL New predictions — automatically in Telegram Get new signals and full-analysis links as soon as they are published. Join the channel

How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

ONE PERSON. AN INDEPENDENT PROJECT.

One person behind the project. Your support makes a difference.

The project currently runs at a loss. A voluntary contribution helps with hosting, data and AI services.

Support the project
18+ All materials are informational and do not guarantee any outcome. Predictions are produced by an automated model; the method is described on the Method page. Responsible gambling

Finding oddmind.app useful?

One person keeps this project running, and it currently brings more expenses than income. If you would like to help, a small voluntary contribution makes a difference.

Support the project
Completely optional. You can keep using the site without donating.