Union Saint-Gilloise — Bodoe/Glimt: Win probabilities, 04.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.8% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 56.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.1% / 42.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.7% / 22.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.0% / 69.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Union Saint-Gilloise have a moderate, slight edge over Bodoe/Glimt in this UEFA Champions League qualification meeting. The assessment points toward a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, with the home side holding the stronger position but not by a decisive margin. Home advantage may help Union Saint-Gilloise control more of the game, although Bodoe/Glimt remain capable of making the tie difficult.
The expected pattern is medium-scoring, with both teams scoring viewed as an even possibility. That leaves several plausible match scripts: a cautious draw, a narrow home win, or a match decided by a small margin after both sides create opportunities. Overall, the analysis favours Union Saint-Gilloise avoiding defeat, while the balance between the teams suggests that Bodoe/Glimt should not be discounted.
What matters before kick-off
Playoff draw path
The winner of the third qualifying round tie between Union Saint-Gilloise and Bodø/Glimt will face either Olympiakos or NEC Nijmegen in the Champions League playoff round.
Belgian Super Cup victory
Union Saint-Gilloise entered the Champions League qualifier having recently won the Belgian Super Cup by defeating Club Brugge in a penalty shootout.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.