Sparta Prague — Olympique Lyon: Win probabilities, 04.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.0% |
| 12 | 75.7% | |
| X2 | 73.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.5% / 43.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.0% / 22.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.5% / 45.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.2% / 67.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.1% / 92.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Sparta Prague face Olympique Lyon in a UEFA Champions League qualification tie where the visitors hold a slight edge. The overall outlook points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with Olympique Lyon better placed to avoid defeat. The X2 signal supports a result involving either an Olympique Lyon win or a draw, while the high confidence attached to this assessment gives the visitors a clear advantage in the pre-match evaluation.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1 identified as the likeliest scorelines. That range reflects a match that could remain close while still offering Olympique Lyon opportunities to take control. Whether both teams score is considered evenly balanced, so Sparta Prague have a credible route to finding the net, but the assessment still leans toward Olympique Lyon in the overall result.
What matters before kick-off
Third qualifying round first leg tie
Sparta Prague host Olympique Lyon in the first leg of their 2026/27 UEFA Champions League third qualifying round tie at the epet ARENA.
Play-off round draw path
The winner of the tie between Sparta Prague and Olympique Lyon will face either Fenerbahçe or Sturm Graz in the Champions League play-off round.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.