GNK Dinamo Zagreb — FK Kauno Zalgiris: Win probabilities, 04.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 96.2% |
| 12 | 89.5% | |
| X2 | 14.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 34.0% / 66.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.5% / 16.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.1% / 36.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.9% / 59.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.9% / 77.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
GNK Dinamo Zagreb enter this UEFA Champions League qualification tie as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home win assessment. FK Kauno Zalgiris face a difficult task against opponents expected to control the match and create the better chances. The available scoring outlook points toward an open game with several opportunities, although the stronger defensive expectation is that FK Kauno Zalgiris may be held without a goal.
The most plausible scorelines reflect that balance: 2:0, 3:0, or 1:0 to GNK Dinamo Zagreb. The wider range suggests that the hosts could build a comfortable margin if their attacking pressure is converted efficiently, while the narrower result remains possible if FK Kauno Zalgiris defend compactly for long periods. Overall, the matchup favours GNK Dinamo Zagreb in both territorial control and end product, with the main question being whether the visitors can limit the extent of the deficit rather than overturn the balance of the tie.
What matters before kick-off
Play-off round opponent drawn
The UEFA Champions League play-off draw held on August 3, 2026, determined that the winner of the third qualifying round tie between GNK Dinamo Zagreb and FK Kauno Žalgiris will face Norwegian side Viking FK in the play-off round.
First leg at Stadion Maksimir
GNK Dinamo Zagreb hosts Lithuanian champions FK Kauno Žalgiris at Stadion Maksimir on August 4, 2026, in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League third qualifying round.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.