PFC Levski Sofia — FC Kairat Almaty: Win probabilities, 04.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.7% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 39.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.4% / 10.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.7% / 30.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 42.3% / 57.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.5% / 78.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.2% / 90.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.4% / 96.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
PFC Levski Sofia enter this UEFA Champions League qualification tie as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the assessment should be treated with some caution. FC Kairat Almaty face a demanding away assignment, with the overall balance pointing toward the hosts controlling more of the match and carrying the greater threat in attack.
The expected profile is medium-scoring rather than an open contest with a large number of goals. A clean sheet is considered likely, which places additional importance on FC Kairat Almaty’s ability to remain compact and resist sustained pressure. PFC Levski Sofia appear best placed to take the initiative, while the visitors’ route into the game would depend on limiting errors and making their opportunities count. The most plausible outcomes indicate a narrow home victory, with a draw also remaining a credible alternative if the match stays close.
What matters before kick-off
Playoff round draw result
The winner of the tie between Levski Sofia and Kairat Almaty will face Greek club AEK Athens in the UEFA Champions League playoff round.
Subsequent European competition path
If Kairat Almaty are defeated by Levski Sofia, the Kazakh side will transfer to the UEFA Europa League playoff round to face either PAOK or Anderlecht.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.