Olympiacos Piraeus — NEC Nijmegen: Win probabilities, 04.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.2% |
| 12 | 79.9% | |
| X2 | 34.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.8% / 21.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.5% / 66.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Olympiacos Piraeus come into this UEFA Champions League qualification tie as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the advantage should be treated with some caution. NEC Nijmegen face a demanding away assignment, with the available assessment pointing toward a home-controlled match rather than a closely balanced contest.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with 2:0, 1:0 and 2:1 identified as the most likely scorelines. That range indicates a possible Olympiacos Piraeus victory without necessarily implying a one-sided game. The prospect of both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so NEC Nijmegen may have opportunities, but the overall edge remains with Olympiacos Piraeus.
What matters before kick-off
Debut in Champions League
NEC Nijmegen are making their debut appearance in the UEFA Champions League, having achieved a historic third-place finish in the Eredivisie.
First-leg venue
This third qualifying round first-leg match is hosted by Olympiacos at the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.