Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC — FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade: Win probabilities, 04.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 40.7% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 83.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.7% / 47.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.7% / 21.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.9% / 84.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC face FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade in a UEFA Champions League qualifying tie where the visitors hold a slight edge, although the low confidence level points to a closely contested match. The available assessment does not suggest a clear gap between the teams, and the outcome could depend on how effectively each side manages the key moments.
A medium-scoring game is expected, with both teams scoring considered an even possibility rather than a strong prediction. The most plausible scorelines include a 1:1 draw, alongside narrow wins for FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade such as 0:1 or 0:2. That range reflects a competitive fixture in which Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC should remain capable of making the match difficult, while the visitors have the marginal advantage in the overall outlook.
What matters before kick-off
Neutral venue in Hungary
Hapoel Be'er Sheva host FK Crvena Zvezda at the Haladás Sportkomplexum in Szombathely, Hungary, for the first leg of their UEFA Champions League third qualifying round tie.
Crvena Zvezda's dominant start
FK Crvena Zvezda reached the third qualifying round by defeating Northern Irish side Larne 9-0 on aggregate in the previous round.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva's second-round comeback
Hapoel Be'er Sheva progressed to the third qualifying round by overcoming a 2-1 first-leg deficit against Icelandic club Víkingur Reykjavík with a 2-0 victory in the return match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.