Union de Santa Fe — Defensa y Justicia: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.7% |
| 12 | 69.7% | |
| X2 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.3% / 9.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.6% / 25.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.7% / 74.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 away Boca Juniors 0:3
- 19.09.2026 home Independiente 1:2
- 13.09.2026 away Talleres Cordoba 1:2
- 08.09.2026 home Instituto 3:2
- 28.08.2026 home Sarmiento Junin 4:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 home San Lorenzo 3:0
- 18.09.2026 away Central Cordoba 2:2
- 11.09.2026 home Gimnasia Mendoza 2:0
- 06.09.2026 away Lanus 0:1
- 31.08.2026 home Platense 1:0
This season: Union de Santa Fe at home vs Defensa y Justicia away
| Metric | Union de Santa Fe · at home | Defensa y Justicia · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 6–4–3 | 4–4–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.69 | 1.23 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.46 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 54% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Defensa y Justicia 2:0 Union de Santa Fe
- 21.10.2025 Union de Santa Fe 3:0 Defensa y Justicia
- 14.04.2025 Defensa y Justicia 0:0 Union de Santa Fe
- 15.12.2024 Defensa y Justicia 0:0 Union de Santa Fe
- 10.03.2024 Defensa y Justicia 2:1 Union de Santa Fe
- 24.10.2023 Union de Santa Fe 0:0 Defensa y Justicia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Union de Santa Fe host Defensa y Justicia in the Primera LPF Clausura, and the picture that emerges from the numbers is a tight contest with a slight edge for the hosts. At home this season Union de Santa Fe have put together a solid return of six wins and four draws from thirteen matches, scoring twenty-two goals along the way. Their recent form, however, reads L L L W W, suggesting a side that has only just steadied itself after a difficult run.
Defensa y Justicia arrive in better immediate rhythm, with three wins, a draw and a single defeat in their last five, conceding just three goals in that stretch. On the road, though, the balance is less convincing: four wins, four draws and five losses from thirteen outings, with more goals conceded than scored. The head-to-head record also carries weight, as the visitors have won two of the last six meetings against one for the hosts, and took the most recent encounter 2-0.
Taken together, the home venue and Union de Santa Fe's stronger domestic record tilt the match their way, yet Defensa y Justicia's tighter recent defence and favourable history keep this firmly in the range of a close, medium-scoring affair.
What matters before kick-off
Unión de Santa Fe squad news
Unión de Santa Fe head coach Leonardo Madelón announced the squad for the match against Defensa y Justicia, bringing in Valentín Cerrudo to replace Lucas Menossi.
Commemorative jersey for Unión
Unión de Santa Fe will debut a special limited-edition jersey in the match against Defensa y Justicia, commemorating the April 1953 launch of the club's official magazine.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.