Instituto AC Cordoba — Boca Juniors: Win probabilities, 09.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.8% |
| 12 | 67.7% | |
| X2 | 66.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.7% / 54.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.2% / 12.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 65.7% / 34.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 37.3% / 62.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.1% / 92.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.4% / 97.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.10.2026 away Independiente 4:1
- 20.09.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 3:1
- 15.09.2026 home Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2:1
- 08.09.2026 away Union de Santa Fe 2:3
- 01.09.2026 home San Lorenzo 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 home Union de Santa Fe 3:0
- 20.09.2026 away San Lorenzo 2:0
- 12.09.2026 home Central Cordoba 3:1
- 05.09.2026 away Gimnasia Mendoza 2:2
- 29.08.2026 home Lanus 1:0
This season: Instituto AC Cordoba at home vs Boca Juniors away
| Metric | Instituto AC Cordoba · at home | Boca Juniors · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 9–1–3 | 6–5–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.54 | 1.57 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.85 | 1.07 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 57% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 22.03.2026 Boca Juniors 2:0 Instituto AC Cordoba
- 29.07.2024 Instituto AC Cordoba 0:0 Boca Juniors
- 19.03.2023 Boca Juniors 2:3 Instituto AC Cordoba
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Instituto AC Cordoba host Boca Juniors in the Clausura with both sides arriving in strong form, which points to a tight contest rather than a one-sided evening. Instituto AC Cordoba have won four of their last five, scoring twelve and conceding six, and their home record this season reads nine wins from thirteen played. Boca Juniors, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their recent five with four wins and a draw, and crucially have lost only three of fourteen on the road, drawing five of those. That blend of a solid home base against travellers who rarely lose outright explains why the teams look evenly matched.
The head-to-head reinforces the balance: three previous meetings have produced one win apiece and a draw, with only one of those games featuring goals from both sides and only one going over two and a half goals. The last encounter went to Boca Juniors by two goals to nil.
Taken together, the signals lean towards a cagey, low-scoring affair where clean sheets have been a theme of the fixture. Confidence is moderate, with a slight edge in favour of the visitors avoiding defeat rather than any clear expectation of goals, and scorelines around a single goal either way feel the most natural fit.
What matters before kick-off
Instituto leading Zone A
Instituto enters the fixture against Boca Juniors as the sole leader of Zone A in the 2026 Torneo Clausura. The team comes off three consecutive victories, including a convincing 4-1 away win against Independiente.
Boca Juniors' tight fixture schedule
Boca Juniors plays this league match right before the first leg of the Copa Sudamericana semifinals. Next Tuesday, the Argentine side is scheduled to host Brazil's Vasco da Gama at La Bombonera.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.