CA Aldosivi — CA Sarmiento Junin: Win probabilities, 09.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.3% |
| 12 | 69.0% | |
| X2 | 66.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.3% / 10.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.9% / 29.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 43.1% / 56.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.2% / 77.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.6% / 90.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.6% / 96.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.10.2026 away Huracan 0:1
- 21.09.2026 home Atl. Tucuman 1:0
- 12.09.2026 away Ind. Rivadavia 3:4
- 05.09.2026 home Banfield 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Argentinos Jrs 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Racing Club 1:3
- 13.09.2026 home Belgrano 1:1
- 04.09.2026 away Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2:0
- 28.08.2026 away Union de Santa Fe 1:4
- 23.08.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 2:0
This season: CA Aldosivi at home vs CA Sarmiento Junin away
| Metric | CA Aldosivi · at home | CA Sarmiento Junin · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 2–8–3 | 3–0–10 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.69 | 0.92 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.85 | 1.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% | 62% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 54% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.03.2026 CA Sarmiento Junin 2:0 CA Aldosivi
- 14.09.2025 CA Sarmiento Junin 2:0 CA Aldosivi
- 01.03.2025 CA Aldosivi 2:2 CA Sarmiento Junin
- 03.09.2022 CA Aldosivi 1:2 CA Sarmiento Junin
- 09.10.2021 CA Sarmiento Junin 3:0 CA Aldosivi
- 17.12.2016 CA Sarmiento Junin 0:2 CA Aldosivi
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
in the Primera LPF, Clausura, in a fixture that looks evenly balanced. With neither side holding a clear qualitative advantage, the contest could be decided by small differences in execution and the ability to make the most of scoring opportunities. The overall assessment suggests a moderate level of confidence in a closely contested match, with neither team standing out as a dominant favorite.
A medium-scoring encounter is the central expectation, although the possibility of a low-scoring game remains relevant. A draw is a plausible outcome, with a level scoreline reflecting the balance between the sides. CA Aldosivi will look to make the most of home advantage, while CA Sarmiento Junin could have opportunities to compete effectively away from home. Whether both teams find the net remains uncertain, making it difficult to favor either side on scoring alone. Overall, this matchup points toward a competitive game in which a narrow result or shared points would fit the available assessment.
What matters before kick-off
Aldosivi lost to Huracán in their previous match
In their previous Torneo Clausura fixture, Aldosivi suffered a 1-0 away defeat against Huracán.
Sarmiento had their matchday 11 fixture postponed
Sarmiento did not play in matchday 11 because their game against River Plate was rescheduled for October 14.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.