Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata — Atletico Tucuman: Win probabilities, 09.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.8% |
| 12 | 69.2% | |
| X2 | 57.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.9% / 60.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.7% / 80.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.9% / 97.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 away Ind. Rivadavia 1:1
- 19.09.2026 home Banfield 2:2
- 13.09.2026 away Argentinos Jrs 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Tigre 2:1
- 29.08.2026 away Rosario Central 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 home Barracas Central 2:3
- 21.09.2026 away Aldosivi 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home River Plate 1:2
- 07.09.2026 away Racing Club 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Belgrano 0:0
This season: Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata at home vs Atletico Tucuman away
| Metric | Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata · at home | Atletico Tucuman · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 7–2–4 | 4–1–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.54 | 0.92 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 54% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 54% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Atletico Tucuman 1:0 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 01.09.2025 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 1:0 Atletico Tucuman
- 24.02.2025 Atletico Tucuman 0:1 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 24.11.2024 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 1:0 Atletico Tucuman
- 07.04.2024 Atletico Tucuman 3:2 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 11.11.2023 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 1:2 Atletico Tucuman
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata arrive in encouraging form, unbeaten across their last five Primera LPF, Clausura outings with two wins and three draws. Their home record this season is a clear asset: seven wins from thirteen matches at their own ground, with twenty goals scored. That body of work points to a side comfortable setting the tempo in familiar surroundings, even if the defensive numbers at home suggest opponents still find openings.
Atletico Tucuman travel in a less settled rhythm, with just one win in their last five and three defeats in that run. On the road this season the picture is similarly difficult, with four wins against eight losses from thirteen away fixtures. The visitors have shown they can score away, but balancing that output against a leaky defence has been the recurring problem.
The head-to-head record is strikingly level, with three wins apiece from six meetings and no draws, and Atletico Tucuman edged the most recent encounter 1-0. That history argues against complacency, yet weighing the current form lines and the hosts' stronger home base, the picture points to a slight edge for Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata in what shapes up as a measured, medium-scoring contest.
What matters before kick-off
Recent form of Gimnasia
Gimnasia y Esgrima enter the match unbeaten in their last five Clausura fixtures (two wins, three draws) after a 1-1 draw against Independiente Rivadavia.
Losing streak for Atlético Tucumán
Atlético Tucumán head into the game on the back of consecutive losses, having fallen to Aldosivi (0-1) and Barracas Central (2-3).
Return from international call-up
Atlético Tucumán defender Clever Ferreira returns to the squad for the match against Gimnasia following his international duty.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.