Union de Santa Fe — CA Lanus: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.7% |
| 12 | 66.6% | |
| X2 | 59.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.1% / 59.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 84.8% / 15.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 60.1% / 39.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 5.1% / 94.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.6% / 98.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.08.2026 away Gimnasia Mendoza 0:2
- 25.07.2026 away Platense 2:2
- 12.05.2026 away Belgrano 0:2
- 10.05.2026 away Ind. Rivadavia 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.08.2026 home Instituto 0:1
- 26.07.2026 home San Lorenzo 1:0
- 10.05.2026 away Argentinos Jrs 0:2
- 02.05.2026 home Dep. Riestra 0:0
- 24.04.2026 home Central Cordoba 0:0
This season: Union de Santa Fe at home vs CA Lanus away
| Metric | Union de Santa Fe · at home | CA Lanus · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 3–4–1 | 2–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.63 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 29.01.2026 CA Lanus 2:1 Union de Santa Fe
- 13.09.2024 CA Lanus 1:1 Union de Santa Fe
- 28.03.2024 CA Lanus 2:2 Union de Santa Fe
- 05.11.2023 Union de Santa Fe 0:0 CA Lanus
- 17.06.2023 Union de Santa Fe 1:1 CA Lanus
- 03.07.2022 Union de Santa Fe 3:0 CA Lanus
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Union de Santa Fe have a slight edge over CA Lanus in this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting, with the available assessment giving the hosts a relatively strong position. That advantage does not point to a one-sided contest, however, as the overall outlook remains cautious and favours protection against a draw. The most reasonable reading is that Union de Santa Fe are better placed to avoid defeat, while CA Lanus remain capable of making the match competitive.
A low-scoring game is expected, with limited room for either side to create a decisive margin. The prospect of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the match could develop through a small number of clear chances rather than sustained attacking pressure. Union de Santa Fe’s home advantage gives them the marginal upper hand, but CA Lanus should not be discounted, particularly if they keep the structure compact. The clearest overall scenario is a tight encounter in which the hosts have the stronger result profile, with a draw also a prominent possibility.
What matters before kick-off
Postponed Round 2 Fixture
The Round 2 match between Unión de Santa Fe and CA Lanús in the 2026 Torneo Clausura was postponed due to Lanús's participation in the Copa Sudamericana playoffs.
Recent Team Form
Unión de Santa Fe are aiming for their first win of the Clausura after drawing 2-2 with Platense and losing 2-0 to Gimnasia de Mendoza. CA Lanús head into the match following a 1-0 home loss to Instituto.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.