Boca Juniors — Estudiantes de La Plata: Win probabilities, 05.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.0% |
| 12 | 68.0% | |
| X2 | 55.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 36.5% / 63.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 84.5% / 15.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 29.6% / 70.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.3% / 98.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Boca Juniors face Estudiantes de La Plata in the Primera LPF Clausura with a slight edge according to the available assessment. The outlook favors Boca Juniors, but the narrow scoreline options indicate a balanced contest rather than a match expected to open up. Estudiantes de La Plata remain capable of keeping the game level, particularly if they can limit Boca Juniors’ opportunities.
The scoring outlook is low, with 1–0, 0–0 and 1–1 identified as the most plausible scorelines. That points toward a match decided by small margins, where defensive structure and the first goal could be particularly important. A clean sheet is considered likely, reinforcing the expectation of limited chances for at least one side. Overall, Boca Juniors have the clearer advantage, while the draw remains a credible outcome and Estudiantes de La Plata are not far outside the competitive picture.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.