Boca Juniors — Estudiantes de La Plata: Win probabilities, 05.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.0% |
| 12 | 70.0% | |
| X2 | 48.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.5% / 57.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 66.6% / 33.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 38.2% / 61.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 18.4% / 81.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.4% / 92.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.6% / 97.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 away Newells Old Boys 2:2
- 26.07.2026 away Dep. Riestra 0:3
- 09.05.2026 home Huracan 1:1
- 02.05.2026 away Central Cordoba 2:1
- 24.04.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 4:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.08.2026 home Defensa y Justicia 3:0
- 26.07.2026 home Independiente 0:2
- 10.05.2026 home Racing Club 0:1
- 03.05.2026 away Platense 2:0
- 25.04.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 0:0
This season: Boca Juniors at home vs Estudiantes de La Plata away
| Metric | Boca Juniors · at home | Estudiantes de La Plata · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 3–6–0 | 4–3–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 29.01.2026 Estudiantes de La Plata 2:1 Boca Juniors
- 02.11.2025 Estudiantes de La Plata 1:2 Boca Juniors
- 20.04.2025 Boca Juniors 2:0 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 27.08.2024 Estudiantes de La Plata 1:1 Boca Juniors
- 01.05.2024 Estudiantes de La Plata 1:1 Boca Juniors
- 12.04.2024 Estudiantes de La Plata 1:0 Boca Juniors
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Boca Juniors approach this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture with a slight edge over Estudiantes de La Plata. The assessment points toward a cautious contest in which Boca Juniors have the stronger overall position, but the gap is not large enough to make the match one-sided. Estudiantes de La Plata remain credible opponents, particularly in a game where limited chances may keep the result balanced for long periods.
The scoring outlook is low, with 1:1, 0:0 and 1:0 standing out as the most plausible scorelines. That suggests a match likely to be decided by small details rather than sustained attacking dominance. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so a clean sheet for either side remains a realistic possibility. Overall, the clearest analytical angle is protection for Boca Juniors against defeat, while a draw remains a significant part of the expected match pattern.
What matters before kick-off
Fernando Muslera ruled out due to illness
Estudiantes de La Plata goalkeeper Fernando Muslera was ruled out for the match after experiencing high fever and flu-like symptoms ahead of kick-off.
Venue change to Estadio Tomas Adolfo Duco
Boca Juniors are playing this home match against Estudiantes de La Plata at Huracan's Estadio Tomas Adolfo Duco instead of La Bombonera due to ongoing field renovations.
Boca Juniors' recent league form
Boca Juniors enter this rescheduled fixture following a 2-2 away draw against Newell's Old Boys in their previous Clausura league match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.