Union de Santa Fe — CA Independiente Avellaneda: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.7% |
| 12 | 67.5% | |
| X2 | 62.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.7% / 28.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 43.1% / 56.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.2% / 77.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.6% / 90.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.6% / 96.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Talleres Cordoba 1:2
- 08.09.2026 home Instituto 3:2
- 28.08.2026 home Sarmiento Junin 4:1
- 21.08.2026 away Aldosivi 3:1
- 15.08.2026 away San Lorenzo 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home San Lorenzo 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Central Cordoba 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Gimnasia Mendoza 0:3
- 22.08.2026 home Ind. Rivadavia 0:0
- 17.08.2026 away Lanus 3:1
This season: Union de Santa Fe at home vs CA Independiente Avellaneda away
| Metric | Union de Santa Fe · at home | CA Independiente Avellaneda · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 6–4–2 | 5–3–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.75 | 1.23 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.92 | 1.23 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 62% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.03.2026 CA Independiente Avellaneda 4:4 Union de Santa Fe
- 06.11.2024 CA Independiente Avellaneda 3:0 Union de Santa Fe
- 24.06.2023 Union de Santa Fe 3:0 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 19.09.2022 Union de Santa Fe 0:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 26.10.2021 CA Independiente Avellaneda 1:0 Union de Santa Fe
- 25.04.2021 Union de Santa Fe 0:0 CA Independiente Avellaneda
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Union de Santa Fe and CA Independiente Avellaneda meet in the Primera LPF, Clausura in a contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives the hosts a slight edge in the sense that the 1X market signal favors Union de Santa Fe avoiding defeat, but confidence is moderate rather than strong. Neither side is clearly separated from the other, so the balance of the match may depend on which team manages the key moments more effectively.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, while both teams scoring remains difficult to call. A level contest is a plausible scenario, with a narrow win for Union de Santa Fe also within the range of outcomes. CA Independiente Avellaneda should remain competitive, and the match is unlikely to offer a clear pre-match conclusion. The overall picture points toward a close game where a draw or a one-goal margin appears more consistent with the available signals than a decisive result.
What matters before kick-off
Cristian Tarragona returns for Unión
Unión de Santa Fe striker Cristian Tarragona has been included in the squad to host Independiente after serving a one-match suspension.
Recent Clausura results for both teams
Heading into matchday 10 of the Torneo Clausura, Independiente came off a 1-1 draw against San Lorenzo, while Unión de Santa Fe lost 2-1 away to Talleres de Córdoba.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.