CA San Lorenzo de Almagro — Boca Juniors: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.2% |
| 12 | 68.7% | |
| X2 | 78.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.6% / 57.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 86.8% / 13.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 36.2% / 63.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.2% / 97.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro face Boca Juniors in a Primera LPF, Clausura match that is expected to remain tight and measured. The overall assessment gives Boca Juniors a slight edge, although the draw remains a realistic possibility. This points toward a contest where small details and the ability to manage limited chances could prove important.
The scoring outlook is low, with the most plausible results clustered around a narrow draw or a slender Boca Juniors victory. A 1:1 scoreline reflects the balance between the teams, while 0:1 would fit the away side’s slight advantage. A goalless draw is also within the range of credible outcomes. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so the match may be decided by one moment rather than sustained attacking dominance.
What matters before kick-off
Head-to-head record
In their overall head-to-head history in national leagues, San Lorenzo hold a slight advantage over Boca Juniors, winning 77 of their 204 league meetings compared to Boca's 74 victories.
Recent cup success
Boca Juniors enter Matchday 10 of the Torneo Clausura after qualifying for the Copa Sudamericana semifinals by eliminating São Paulo.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.