CA Independiente Avellaneda — CA Platense: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.9% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 40.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.8% / 59.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.7% / 59.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.1% / 96.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CA Independiente Avellaneda hold a slight edge over CA Platense in this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting, although the low confidence level points to a contest with limited separation between the sides. The home advantage gives CA Independiente Avellaneda the more favourable starting position, but the available signals do not suggest a strongly one-sided match.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with a clean sheet more likely than both teams finding the net. That points toward a controlled encounter in which defensive organisation could have a significant influence on the outcome. CA Independiente Avellaneda may be able to turn territorial or possession advantages into a narrow result, while CA Platense remain capable of keeping the match close. A low-margin home win is the clearest reading, but a draw also remains a credible possibility.
What matters before kick-off
Match result in Fecha 4 of the 2026 Clausura
CA Platense secured a 1-0 away win against CA Independiente courtesy of a second-half goal from Gonzalo Mainero.
Martín Palermo's return and winless streak ended
The victory over CA Independiente ended a 14-game domestic winless streak for CA Platense in Martín Palermo's return as head coach.
Second consecutive defeat for CA Independiente
For CA Independiente, the loss to CA Platense was their second consecutive defeat in the 2026 Torneo Clausura, following a loss to Vélez Sarsfield in the previous matchday.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.