Atletico Tucuman — CA Sarmiento Junin: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.3% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 45.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.6% / 59.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.8% / 12.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 65.7% / 34.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 37.8% / 62.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 18.1% / 81.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.5% / 97.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Atletico Tucuman have a slight but meaningful edge over CA Sarmiento Junin in this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting. The assessment points toward a controlled contest in which the hosts are the more likely side to manage the important moments, although the margin between the teams is not expected to produce an open or high-tempo match. The home advantage gives Atletico Tucuman the stronger position, with the overall outlook indicating a high level of confidence in that reading.
The game is projected to be low-scoring, making defensive organisation and the first goal especially important. A narrow home victory is the clearest scenario, while a draw remains a credible alternative if CA Sarmiento Junin can keep the match compact. The available signal favours Atletico Tucuman avoiding defeat, and a clean sheet appears more likely than both teams finding the net. Overall, the match points toward a cautious home result rather than a wide-margin outcome.
What matters before kick-off
CA Sarmiento defeat Atlético Tucumán 2-1
CA Sarmiento defeated Atlético Tucumán 2-1 away at the Estadio Monumental José Fierro in Matchday 4 of the 2026 Torneo Clausura. Junior Marabel and Julián Mavilla scored for the visitors, while Luciano Vallejo scored for the home side.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.