Defensa y Justicia — Newell's Old Boys: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.3% |
| 12 | 68.1% | |
| X2 | 60.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.1% / 29.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.7% / 58.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.1% / 78.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.3% / 96.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Defensa y Justicia and Newell's Old Boys meet in the Primera LPF, Clausura in a contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, pointing instead to a balanced game in which small details and the flow of the match may carry significant weight. With moderate confidence in that reading, the 1X signal suggests that Defensa y Justicia have some protection from playing at home, although this does not remove the possibility of a Newell's Old Boys victory.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with 1:1, 0:0 and 1:0 among the likely scorelines. That range reflects a match that could remain tight while still offering room for a controlled exchange of chances. Whether both teams score is considered a coin flip, so the game may develop either as a cautious draw or as a narrow result for Defensa y Justicia. Overall, the most appropriate expectation is a close encounter rather than a fixture with a clearly dominant side.
What matters before kick-off
Defensa y Justicia's recent result
Defensa y Justicia suffered a 3-0 loss against Estudiantes in their match on August 1.
Newell's Old Boys' recent result
Newell's Old Boys played out a 2-2 draw against Boca Juniors in their match on August 2.
Previous head-to-head meeting
In the most recent meeting between the teams in February 2026, Defensa y Justicia earned a 3-2 away victory against Newell's Old Boys.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.