Union Berlin — Schalke 04: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.4% |
| 12 | 72.3% | |
| X2 | 59.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.1% / 34.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.6% / 15.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.4% / 38.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.1% / 60.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.4% / 78.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.2% / 89.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.09.2026
Union Berlin
15th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Leverkusen 0:4
- 29.08.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 3:3
- 16.05.2026 home Augsburg 4:0
- 10.05.2026 away Mainz 3:1
- 02.05.2026 home FC Koln 2:2
Schalke 04
14th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Bayern Munich 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Augsburg 0:3
- 17.05.2026 home Braunschweig 1:0
- 09.05.2026 away Nurnberg 0:3
- 02.05.2026 home Fortuna Dusseldorf 1:0
This season: Union Berlin at home vs Schalke 04 away
| Metric | Union Berlin · at home | Schalke 04 · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.84 | 1.54 |
| xG against per match | 1.46 | 3.52 |
| Shots on target per match | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 19.02.2023 Union Berlin 0:0 Schalke 04
- 27.08.2022 Schalke 04 1:6 Union Berlin
- 13.02.2021 Union Berlin 0:0 Schalke 04
- 18.10.2020 Schalke 04 1:1 Union Berlin
- 07.06.2020 Union Berlin 1:1 Schalke 04
- 29.11.2019 Schalke 04 2:1 Union Berlin
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Union Berlin and Schalke 04 look evenly matched ahead of their Bundesliga meeting. The available assessment gives only moderate confidence in the overall outlook, suggesting a contest where neither side holds a decisive advantage. The home setting may provide Union Berlin with a slight positional benefit, but Schalke 04 remain well placed to make the match competitive.
The game is expected to be high-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That points towards an open encounter rather than a cautious battle, with chances potentially developing at both ends. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 1:2, reflecting the narrow balance between the teams. Overall, the analysis leans towards Union Berlin avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a realistic central outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Schalke's draw with Bayern
In the previous Bundesliga matchday, Schalke 04 held champions Bayern Munich to a 0-0 draw, earning their first point of the season.
Union Berlin's start under Mauro Lustrinelli
New Union Berlin head coach Mauro Lustrinelli opened the 2026/27 Bundesliga season with a 3-3 draw against Eintracht Frankfurt followed by a 4-0 loss to Bayer Leverkusen.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.