Union Berlin — Schalke 04: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.4% |
| 12 | 72.3% | |
| X2 | 59.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.1% / 34.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.6% / 15.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.4% / 38.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.1% / 60.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.4% / 78.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.2% / 89.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.45 → now 2.35 |
| W2 | was 2.80 → now 3.00 |
Match preview
Union Berlin and Schalke 04 look evenly matched ahead of their Bundesliga meeting. The available assessment gives only moderate confidence in the overall outlook, suggesting a contest where neither side holds a decisive advantage. The home setting may provide Union Berlin with a slight positional benefit, but Schalke 04 remain well placed to make the match competitive.
The game is expected to be high-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That points towards an open encounter rather than a cautious battle, with chances potentially developing at both ends. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 1:2, reflecting the narrow balance between the teams. Overall, the analysis leans towards Union Berlin avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a realistic central outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Schalke's draw with Bayern
In the previous Bundesliga matchday, Schalke 04 held champions Bayern Munich to a 0-0 draw, earning their first point of the season.
Union Berlin's start under Mauro Lustrinelli
New Union Berlin head coach Mauro Lustrinelli opened the 2026/27 Bundesliga season with a 3-3 draw against Eintracht Frankfurt followed by a 4-0 loss to Bayer Leverkusen.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.