1. FC Cologne — Werder Bremen: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.5% |
| 12 | 75.6% | |
| X2 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.2% / 33.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.0% / 14.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.3% / 56.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
1. FC Cologne
12th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 away Stuttgart 1:4
- 29.08.2026 home Hoffenheim 3:2
- 16.05.2026 away Bayern Munich 1:5
- 10.05.2026 home Heidenheim 1:3
- 02.05.2026 away Union Berlin 2:2
Werder Bremen
11th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home RB Leipzig 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Freiburg 1:4
- 16.05.2026 home Dortmund 0:2
- 09.05.2026 away Hoffenheim 0:1
- 02.05.2026 home Augsburg 1:3
This season: 1. FC Cologne at home vs Werder Bremen away
| Metric | 1. FC Cologne · at home | Werder Bremen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.95 | 0.48 |
| xG against per match | 1.88 | 1.94 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.04.2026 1. FC Cologne 3:1 Werder Bremen
- 29.11.2025 Werder Bremen 1:1 1. FC Cologne
- 16.02.2024 1. FC Cologne 0:1 Werder Bremen
- 23.09.2023 Werder Bremen 2:1 1. FC Cologne
- 20.05.2023 Werder Bremen 1:1 1. FC Cologne
- 21.01.2023 1. FC Cologne 7:1 Werder Bremen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
1. FC Cologne go into this Bundesliga meeting with a slight edge over Werder Bremen, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest that could remain finely balanced. The available assessment points towards a high-scoring match, suggesting that neither side is expected to dominate the attacking exchanges for long periods.
Both teams are likely to score, which makes the result difficult to separate despite the home advantage. 1. FC Cologne may have the stronger platform, but Werder Bremen retain a credible route to taking something from the game. The overall signal favours backing the hosts against defeat rather than relying on a decisive home victory, with a draw remaining a realistic outcome in an open encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Recent League Results
In their previous Bundesliga fixture, 1. FC Cologne suffered a 4-1 defeat away to VfB Stuttgart, while Werder Bremen secured a 3-1 home victory against RB Leipzig.
Cologne's Home Record Against Werder
1. FC Cologne have lost just 1 of their last 13 Bundesliga home encounters against Werder Bremen, recording 6 wins and 6 draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.