1. FC Cologne — Werder Bremen: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.5% |
| 12 | 75.6% | |
| X2 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.2% / 33.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.0% / 14.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.3% / 56.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 3.30 → now 3.40 |
Match preview
1. FC Cologne go into this Bundesliga meeting with a slight edge over Werder Bremen, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest that could remain finely balanced. The available assessment points towards a high-scoring match, suggesting that neither side is expected to dominate the attacking exchanges for long periods.
Both teams are likely to score, which makes the result difficult to separate despite the home advantage. 1. FC Cologne may have the stronger platform, but Werder Bremen retain a credible route to taking something from the game. The overall signal favours backing the hosts against defeat rather than relying on a decisive home victory, with a draw remaining a realistic outcome in an open encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Recent League Results
In their previous Bundesliga fixture, 1. FC Cologne suffered a 4-1 defeat away to VfB Stuttgart, while Werder Bremen secured a 3-1 home victory against RB Leipzig.
Cologne's Home Record Against Werder
1. FC Cologne have lost just 1 of their last 13 Bundesliga home encounters against Werder Bremen, recording 6 wins and 6 draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.